Ethena’s ENA token has drawn fresh attention after Standard Chartered initiated coverage with a $2 price target for the end of 2028.
With ENA trading near $0.25 on Sept. 30, the bank’s target implies roughly 700% upside from current levels.
The forecast is based on Ethena’s exposure to three major crypto growth areas: stablecoins, perpetual futures and tokenized real-world assets.
Standard Chartered also highlighted Ethena’s planned ENA buyback program, which could connect the token more directly to revenue generated across the protocol’s expanding business lines.
Why Standard Chartered sees ENA reaching $2
Standard Chartered Global Research said Ethena sits at the intersection of several markets it expects to grow significantly over the next few years.
The bank’s investment case centers on USDe, Ethena’s synthetic dollar, and the way its yield-generating strategy is expanding beyond crypto funding rates.
Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, described Ethena as a scalable yield-bearing stablecoin model.
The report argues that if USDe adoption continues growing while Ethena expands into institutional lending, tokenized equities and traditional credit markets, ENA could benefit from that broader ecosystem growth.
USDe remains at the center of the Ethena story
USDe is a major part of Standard Chartered’s bullish thesis.
The synthetic dollar grew rapidly after launching in late 2023 and became one of the fastest stablecoins to reach a $10 billion market capitalization.
Standard Chartered estimates yield-bearing stablecoins currently make up around 5% of the broader stablecoin market.
The bank expects that percentage to increase as users look for dollar-linked assets that can also generate yield.
Ethena originally generated much of USDe’s returns through a crypto basis trade.
Under this model, the protocol holds spot assets while taking short positions in perpetual futures to reduce directional price exposure.
At times, that strategy generated annualized yields above 20%.
Ethena is reducing its dependence on crypto funding rates
One of the biggest changes in Ethena’s strategy has been its move into additional sources of yield.
The protocol has expanded into institutional credit, tokenized equities and traditional credit products.
This diversification could make USDe less dependent on crypto perpetual funding rates.
That matters because funding rates can change significantly depending on market conditions.
A more diversified backing strategy could potentially make Ethena’s revenue sources more stable, although each new market introduces its own risks.
Ethena and FalconX launched a $1 billion lending facility
Institutional lending is one of the clearest examples of Ethena moving beyond traditional crypto basis trades.
Ethena and FalconX launched a $1 billion lending facility in August.
The program allows assets backing USDe to support secured and overcollateralized loans for institutional borrowers.
FalconX originates and services the loans through a special purpose vehicle.
Qualified custodians hold collateral worth more than the outstanding loans.
Earlier in July, institutional lending accounted for approximately $310 million, or 6.9%, of USDe backing.
The facility gives Ethena another way to generate returns while expanding its exposure to institutional credit markets.
Ethena is taking its basis trade into tokenized equities
Ethena has also expanded its basis strategy into tokenized U.S. stocks.
The framework uses tokenized equities for spot exposure while equity perpetual futures provide the offsetting hedge.
Binance bStocks are used for tokenized spot exposure, while equity perpetual contracts provide the short side of the trade.
When the plan was announced, Binance had more than $2.9 billion in equity perpetual open interest.
The equity basis had averaged approximately 3.56% annualized during the previous six months.
Ethena Labs founder Guy Young described the move as one of the most significant expansions of USDe’s funding mechanism since the project began.
Tokenized assets could become a major growth driver
Standard Chartered’s ENA forecast also depends heavily on the broader growth of tokenization.
The bank expects real-world assets deployed on blockchains to grow from around $40 billion today to approximately $2 trillion by the end of 2028.
That is the same timeframe as its $2 ENA target.
If that forecast is even partially realized, Ethena could gain access to a much larger range of yield-generating assets.
The protocol has already begun moving in that direction.
In June, Ethena planned a $250 million allocation to a tokenized AAA-rated collateralized loan obligation fund offered through Securitize.
The fund invests in U.S. dollar-denominated AAA CLO tranches.
BNY serves as custodian and sub-adviser.
ENA buybacks are central to the $2 thesis
Standard Chartered also pointed to changes in ENA’s token economics.
Ethena proposed in August that 95% of net revenue generated by its branded businesses be directed toward recurring ENA buybacks once USDe supply reaches predetermined levels.
The first threshold is set at $7.5 billion of USDe supply.
This is different from Ethena’s earlier $260 million buyback program, which relied on a fixed pool of capital.
The new structure would connect token purchases directly to recurring revenue generated by Ethena’s businesses.
If revenue grows over time, the buyback program could potentially increase demand for ENA.
USDe supply will determine when revenue-based buybacks begin
The proposed buyback system will not activate automatically at current levels.
USDe supply needs to reach the required thresholds.
When the proposal was announced in August, USDe supply remained below $5 billion after previously peaking near $15 billion.
That means growth in USDe adoption remains an important condition for the tokenomics thesis.
If USDe fails to recover or expand, the revenue-based buyback mechanism may take longer to become meaningful.
Ethena is also changing ENA’s unlock structure
Ethena has made additional changes to reduce pressure from token unlocks.
The Ethena Foundation purchased locked ENA from some large seed investors that had been selling tokens.
The protocol also planned to accelerate the remaining unlocks for original investors.
The changes were designed to bring monthly releases for those investors to an end sooner.
Tokens allocated to the Ethena team remain under their existing vesting schedules.
This could reduce long-term uncertainty around recurring investor unlocks, although supply dynamics will still remain important.
CME reference rates could help institutional adoption
Institutional infrastructure around ENA has also expanded.
CME Group introduced ENA reference rates in August covering London, New York and Asia-Pacific market closes.
CF Benchmarks calculates the rates using transactions from eligible spot exchanges.
The benchmarks are published every day, including weekends and holidays.
They can be used for portfolio valuation, risk management and the development of financial products linked to ENA.
This kind of infrastructure can make the token easier for institutional investors and financial companies to track and integrate.
USDe backing is becoming more diversified
Ethena’s strategy is no longer focused only on crypto funding rates.
The FalconX lending facility added institutional credit.
The tokenized equity strategy introduced exposure to stock-related basis trades.
The planned CLO allocation added traditional credit exposure through tokenized assets.
Together, these changes show that Ethena is attempting to build a broader yield-generating system around USDe.
That diversification is one of the strongest parts of Standard Chartered’s long-term case.
However, it also introduces more complexity.
Credit risk, counterparty risk, liquidity and tokenization infrastructure all become more important as Ethena expands beyond crypto-native markets.
Ethena Pay adds another use case for USDe
Ethena has also been trying to make USDe useful beyond trading and yield strategies.
The company launched the beta version of Ethena Pay in September.
The service combines self-custodial USDe balances with payments and annual reward rates of up to 6%.
The beta initially opened to 400 users in eligible markets.
Standard membership is free, while higher membership levels require users to lock specified amounts of ENA or meet referral requirements.
Ethena Pay Ltd. states that it is not a bank and that customer balances are not protected by FDIC insurance or another government-backed deposit scheme.
ENA has already responded strongly to recent developments
ENA’s market performance has improved alongside Ethena’s recent expansion.
The token gained more than 50% over the seven days through Sept. 26 as investors responded to developments around tokenized stocks and equity perpetuals.
ENA traded around $0.2756 on Sept. 26 after reaching approximately $0.2807.
At that point, the token was trading above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages.
That move showed stronger market momentum, although ENA remained far below Standard Chartered’s $2 target.
What would ENA need to reach $2?
At a price near $0.25, reaching $2 would require an increase of approximately eight times.
That means Standard Chartered’s forecast depends on several important assumptions playing out successfully.
USDe would likely need to regain strong supply growth.
Ethena’s institutional lending and tokenized-asset strategies would need to generate meaningful revenue.
The revenue-linked ENA buyback program would need to become active and remain material.
Broader stablecoin and tokenization markets would also need to grow substantially.
Finally, ENA would need to maintain enough investor demand to absorb future token supply.
What could prevent ENA from reaching $2?
The $2 target is a forecast, not a guaranteed outcome.
Several risks could weaken the thesis.
USDe growth could remain below the thresholds needed to support recurring buybacks.
Crypto funding rates could decline, reducing returns from the original basis strategy.
Institutional credit and tokenized-asset investments could introduce new counterparty or liquidity risks.
Regulatory changes could also affect stablecoins, tokenized securities or yield-bearing products.
ENA’s own token supply and future unlocks could create additional selling pressure.
A broader crypto market downturn would also make an eightfold price increase more difficult.
Is Standard Chartered’s $2 ENA target realistic?
The target is ambitious.
At current prices, ENA would need to rise by roughly 700% to reach $2.
Standard Chartered’s thesis is not based on short-term technical momentum alone.
It assumes that Ethena becomes a much larger platform operating across stablecoins, institutional credit, perpetual futures and tokenized real-world assets.
The bank is effectively betting that revenue growth across those businesses will eventually translate into greater token demand through recurring ENA buybacks.
Whether that happens will depend on actual adoption and revenue rather than the size of the addressable markets alone.
What ENA investors should watch through 2028
Several metrics will be important in judging whether ENA remains on track toward Standard Chartered’s target.
USDe supply is one of the most important.
Investors should watch whether it can recover toward the $7.5 billion threshold required for the first stage of revenue-linked buybacks.
Ethena’s recurring revenue and the size of actual ENA purchases will also matter.
Growth in institutional lending, tokenized equity strategies and real-world asset allocations will show whether the protocol can successfully diversify away from crypto funding rates.
ENA token supply should also be monitored as investor unlocks change.
Finally, the size of the broader tokenized-asset and yield-bearing stablecoin markets will provide an important test of Standard Chartered’s long-term assumptions.
For now, the $2 forecast represents a bullish long-term scenario rather than a confirmed destination.
Ethena has several growing business lines that could support ENA over time, but reaching Standard Chartered’s target will require significant growth across USDe, tokenization and recurring protocol revenue.
Disclosure: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
