Bitcoin has maintained its position above the $63,000 level after last week’s impressive recovery, but the rally is beginning to lose momentum as traders weigh improving expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts against rising geopolitical tensions and growing technical resistance.
While easing inflation hopes and renewed institutional demand have supported the recent rebound, higher oil prices, uncertainty surrounding the Middle East, and bearish technical signals are keeping investors cautious. The coming days, particularly the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, could determine whether Bitcoin breaks above $64,000 or slips back toward key support levels.
Bitcoin rebounds on hopes of lower interest rates
According to crypto.news price data, Bitcoin was trading around $63,100 on Tuesday after briefly testing the $64,000 resistance level.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency has gained nearly 10% over the past week, driven largely by improving macroeconomic sentiment.
Investor confidence increased after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh suggested that productivity gains from artificial intelligence could help control inflation. At the same time, a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report, which showed only 57,000 new jobs, strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates sooner than previously anticipated.
Lower interest rates generally improve market liquidity and encourage investors to move capital into higher-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin ETFs show signs of recovery
Institutional demand has also started to improve after several difficult weeks.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recently recorded two consecutive days of net inflows, marking the first positive streak after June’s record $4.5 billion in net outflows.
Although ETF demand remains below previous highs, the renewed inflows suggest institutional investors are gradually returning to the market as macroeconomic conditions improve.
This recovery has helped strengthen Bitcoin’s recent rally despite ongoing market uncertainty.
Strategy’s Bitcoin sale briefly shook the market
Corporate treasury activity also contributed to recent volatility.
Strategy recently disclosed an $8.32 billion second-quarter loss linked to its Bitcoin holdings and confirmed the sale of 3,588 BTC to fund dividend payments.
The announcement briefly pushed Bitcoin toward the $61,000 level while triggering the liquidation of nearly $500 million in leveraged long positions within 24 hours.
However, buyers quickly returned, allowing Bitcoin to recover above $63,000 shortly afterward.
The market’s relatively calm response suggested investors viewed the sale as a treasury management decision rather than a sign of weakening long-term confidence.
Technical charts show resistance building
Despite the recent rebound, Bitcoin continues facing significant technical resistance.
On the daily chart, BTC has recovered strongly from the $58,000 support zone but has repeatedly failed to break above the important $65,000 resistance area.
The cryptocurrency also remains below its:
- 50-day moving average: approximately $65,800
- 200-day moving average: continuing to define the broader trend
Although price action remains constructive, buyers still need to reclaim these levels before confirming a stronger bullish reversal.
Momentum indicators send mixed signals
Several technical indicators continue to paint a mixed picture.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has climbed back above zero, suggesting fresh capital is gradually returning to the market after weeks of selling pressure.
Meanwhile, the MACD remains in bullish territory, although upward momentum has slowed considerably as Bitcoin approaches resistance.
Short-term charts, however, show increasing caution.
On the four-hour timeframe:
- Bitcoin continues trading above its 20, 50, and 100-period moving averages.
- Those averages now provide important support between $61,500 and $63,000.
At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has formed a bearish divergence, with Bitcoin making higher highs while RSI records lower highs.
This pattern often signals weakening buying momentum and can precede short-term pullbacks.
Liquidation levels could accelerate the next move
Derivatives data suggests the next breakout—or breakdown—could happen quickly.
According to CoinGlass liquidation data:
- Large short liquidation clusters sit between $64,500 and $66,000.
- Significant long liquidation levels remain concentrated near $61,000 to $61,500.
If Bitcoin successfully breaks above $64,500, forced short liquidations could fuel another rapid rally toward $66,000.
Conversely, losing the $61,000 support zone could trigger another wave of selling as leveraged long positions are forced to close.
Rising oil prices add new uncertainty
While expectations for Federal Reserve easing have supported Bitcoin, geopolitical developments are creating fresh risks.
Oil prices recently climbed above $69 per barrel after reports that a Qatar state-owned LNG carrier was struck near the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about regional shipping security and growing tensions involving Iran.
A sustained increase in oil prices could complicate the Federal Reserve’s inflation outlook by placing renewed upward pressure on energy costs.
If inflation remains elevated, policymakers may delay interest rate cuts, potentially reducing support for risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Fed minutes could become the next major catalyst
Investors are now closely watching the release of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes.
The report could provide additional clues regarding the timing of future interest rate cuts and significantly influence short-term market sentiment.
Several analysts believe the Fed minutes may become the catalyst that finally pushes Bitcoin out of its current trading range.
Some market observers have also pointed to the existing bearish RSI divergence, warning that short-term momentum appears to be weakening despite Bitcoin’s recent gains.
Outlook
Bitcoin remains in a delicate position as improving macroeconomic conditions continue supporting prices while technical resistance and geopolitical uncertainty limit further upside.
Renewed ETF inflows, expectations for lower interest rates, and stronger institutional participation have helped Bitcoin recover above $63,000. However, the cryptocurrency must decisively break above $64,000-$65,000 to confirm that bullish momentum remains intact.
With rising oil prices, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and key technical levels all converging, the next major move could arrive quickly. A successful breakout above resistance may open the path toward $66,000, while failure to hold support near $61,000 could trigger another wave of profit-taking.
