Gold put in an impressive performance last week, closing above $3360 after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data softened the dollar and lifted gold and other XXXUSD pairs. With momentum on gold’s side, the outlook for this week leans bullish especially if price respects key support zones. Traders may want to keep an eye on a potential push toward $3440, with a shot at a new all-time high above $3500.
Let’s break down what to expect this week, including critical levels, key events, and strategy ideas for navigating the markets.
Key Economic Events This Week
Several U.S. reports due this week could impact gold (XAUUSD), particularly through USD strength or weakness.
- Aug 5 – ISM Services PMI (Actual: 51.5 vs. Forecast: 50.8):
Better-than-expected data suggests continued economic expansion, which may briefly boost the dollar and apply some pressure on gold in the short term. - Aug 7 – Unemployment Claims (Actual: 221K vs. Forecast: 218K):
Slightly higher-than-expected jobless claims may reignite speculation of a more dovish Fed, which would generally support gold’s upside.
Higher Timeframe (HTF) Overview
The broader trend is bullish. As mentioned in last week’s gold forecast, the monthly chart shows price reaching for external liquidity, and that move is still in play.
Gold is now heading toward $3440, and if momentum continues, a retest or even a breakout above the previous all-time high at $3500 looks increasingly likely.
Gold Forecast: August 4–8, 2025
4-Hour Chart – Buy Bias Confirmed
The trend on the 4-hour timeframe has shifted clearly to the upside. The key buy zone this week is the breaker block between $3334–$3325, which also aligns with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. This confluence makes it a high-probability area to look for long setups if price retraces.
1-Hour Chart – Short-Term Sell Zone Identified
There is a bearish order block on the 1-hour chart between $3365–$3373. While the larger trend favors buys, aggressive short-term traders might explore scalping sell entries from this zone ideally with tight risk management.
📉 Note: Any bearish moves are likely to be retracements within a broader bullish trend.
Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendations
Primary Bias: Buy
- Use dips into the $3334–$3325 zone to look for long entries.
- Look for signs of consolidation or bullish candlestick patterns before entry.
- Targets for the week: $3440 and potentially $3500+ if momentum continues.
Secondary Bias: Sell (Scalps Only)
- Short-term scalpers may attempt small sell trades from $3365–$3373.
- Treat these setups cautiously and consider exiting before reaching the breaker block zone.
Key Levels to Watch
Support Zone (Buy Area):
- $3334–$3325 → 4h breaker block + 0.5 Fib level
Resistance Zone (Sell/Take Profit Area):
- $3365–$3373 → 1h bearish order block
Final Thoughts
The short-term charts might offer scalping opportunities, but the real strength lies in the higher timeframes. Unless the structure breaks down below the $3325 zone, the path of least resistance remains to the upside.
Watch for key economic reports, but as long as the dollar stays soft and gold holds above key support, bulls are likely to stay in control.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
