Despite robust institutional demand and ongoing ETF inflows, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade below the elusive $100,000 mark, puzzling investors and analysts alike. While fundamentals remain strong, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards suggests that the sideways price action reflects a transition in market ownership from long-time holders to institutional newcomers.
ETF Inflows Absorbed by OG Sell-Offs
In a June 29 post on X (formerly Twitter), Edwards explained that long-term Bitcoin holders, often referred to as “OGs,” have been selling into strength since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier this year.
“People are wondering why Bitcoin has been stuck at $100K for so long,” Edwards wrote. “It’s because Bitcoin OGs have been dumping on Wall Street since the ETF launch.”
While ETFs have attracted billions in new capital, this influx has been met with significant supply pressure, as early adopters cash out at favorable prices, limiting Bitcoin’s upward momentum.
Corporate Treasuries Begin Long-Term Accumulation
However, Edwards believes this transitional phase could set the stage for the next leg higher. A new class of buyers corporate treasury allocators and government-linked institutions are now entering the market with long-term strategic goals.
These players are building Bitcoin reserves as part of diversified balance sheet strategies, viewing BTC as a hedge against fiat debasement and a store of value asset in the digital age.
Edwards refers to this dynamic as a “flywheel effect”, where steady, conviction-driven buying creates a reinforcing cycle of price stability and growing institutional trust.
On-Chain Data Backs the Narrative
Supporting this trend, on-chain metrics reveal that six-month-plus Bitcoin holders a cohort of newer long-term investors have surged in recent months. This group has absorbed more BTC than OGs have sold over the past 18 months, signaling deepening conviction and a potential shift in supply dynamics.
Historically, similar spikes in long-term holder accumulation have preceded major bullish reversals, reinforcing Edwards’ view that the current stall may be a calm before the next wave of upward momentum.
Outlook: Reaccumulation Before Liftoff?
While Bitcoin’s current price action may appear uninspiring on the surface, analysts argue it reflects a healthy reaccumulation phase. As legacy holders rotate out and corporate buyers rotate in, the groundwork is being laid for sustainable, long-term price appreciation.
For now, Bitcoin’s journey beyond $100,000 remains in a holding pattern but the shifting hands behind the scenes may be laying the foundation for the next breakout.
