In a fresh warning for crypto traders, one of Bitcoin’s most trusted long-term momentum indicators has turned bearish a signal that has historically preceded extended market downturns in every major cycle over the past decade.
This analysis is based on technical insights from CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.
A Key Indicator Turns Red for the First Time This Cycle
The monthly MACD histogram, a widely followed momentum gauge, printed its first red bar below the zero line in November as Bitcoin dropped more than 17%.
This shift confirms a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal, suggesting that the rally from around $20,000 earlier this year has officially lost momentum.
Historically, this specific bearish crossover has not been kind to bulls.
Past cycles show a similar pattern:
- In 2021, after BTC fell from ~$70K to $50K, the MACD turned bearish in January 2022 → Bitcoin eventually collapsed below $20K
- In 2018, a bearish crossover signaled the deepening of the bear market
- In 2014, the same pattern appeared before a prolonged downturn
While no indicator is perfect, the MACD’s monthly signals have aligned closely with the start of major Bitcoin bear phases for more than a decade.
Macro Forces Support the Bearish Momentum
Even if the technical signal alone doesn’t guarantee a downturn, today’s macro backdrop leans bearish:
- Japan’s fiscal stress adds uncertainty to global risk markets
- The U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields remain firm, despite talk of Fed rate cuts
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen persistent outflows, weakening near-term demand
Taken together, these factors reinforce the MACD’s warning and suggest the risk of more downside volatility.
Key Levels to Watch for Bitcoin
Traders should prepare for increased market swings. Critical supports include:
- $84,500 – Trendline support connecting higher lows from 2023–2024
- $74,500 – April’s swing low
- $70,000 – Former 2021 cycle peak
Losing these levels could confirm a deeper retracement.
ETH Faces Its Own Bearish Signal: The Death Cross
Bitcoin isn’t the only major asset flashing warning signs. Ethereum has confirmed a death cross, where the 50-day simple moving average drops below the 200-day SMA, signaling potential sustained weakness.
While the term sounds dramatic, ETH’s death cross has had mixed reliability in past cycles, and should be interpreted alongside other indicators not as a standalone predictor.
Bottom Line
Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are entering December with technically bearish structures:
- Bitcoin’s monthly MACD crossover has aligned with every major bear market since 2012
- Macro pressures and ETF outflows reinforce downside risks
- Ethereum faces its own technical headwinds with a confirmed death cross
Traders should stay cautious, monitor key levels, and prepare for elevated volatility as markets digest these long-term bearish signals.
