XRP is approaching one of its most important support levels of 2026 as traders weigh oversold market conditions against weakening on-chain activity and persistent selling pressure. After losing more than 10% over the past week, the token is now hovering near the $1.10 region, a level many analysts believe could determine its next major move.
While falling Binance reserves have offered a potentially bullish signal, other metrics suggest caution remains warranted. Realized losses continue to outweigh profits, XRP Ledger activity has cooled significantly, and the broader technical structure remains bearish.
The question now is whether reduced exchange supply can help XRP stabilize before sellers push the token toward lower support zones.
XRP Tests Critical Support Near $1.10
XRP traded around $1.11 on June 10 after moving between $1.10 and $1.16 during a volatile trading session.
Despite a modest rebound from recent lows, the token remains under pressure after declining nearly 70% from its July 2025 all-time high of $3.65.
The current chart structure continues to favor sellers.
XRP has formed a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, a classic sign of a continuing downtrend. The token also remains below the Supertrend resistance level at approximately $1.26, keeping the broader technical outlook negative.
For now, the $1.10 level serves as the market’s primary line of defense.
A failure to hold that support could open the door to deeper losses toward $1.00 and potentially $0.90.
Oversold Conditions Offer Some Hope
One of the few bullish signals currently visible comes from momentum indicators.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to approximately 29, placing XRP in oversold territory.
Traditionally, RSI readings below 30 suggest that selling pressure may have become excessive and that a short-term relief rally could emerge.
However, oversold conditions alone do not guarantee a reversal.
For momentum to genuinely improve, XRP would need to reclaim the 30 level and eventually push above 50, signaling that buyers have regained control.
Until that occurs, traders remain cautious despite the oversold reading.
Analysts Identify Major Recovery Zone
Popular analyst EGRAG Crypto continues to monitor a long-term falling wedge formation that could eventually support a larger recovery.
According to the analyst, the most important bullish trigger sits between $1.66 and $2.00.
A breakout into that range would significantly improve the technical picture and potentially activate much larger upside targets.
However, the analyst has repeatedly stressed that these projections remain inactive until confirmation arrives.
As EGRAG Crypto noted:
“No confirmation = no celebration.”
At current prices, XRP would still need to gain nearly 50% simply to challenge the first major breakout zone.
Realized Losses Continue to Dominate
While technical traders focus on chart patterns, on-chain data reveals a less encouraging picture.
Recent figures from Glassnode show that XRP holders continue realizing losses at a significantly higher rate than profits.
The network’s 90-day realized profit-to-loss ratio has fallen to approximately 0.38.
In practical terms, this means investors are realizing only 38 cents in profit for every dollar of losses.
A ratio below 1 typically signals market stress and capitulation, as participants increasingly sell at a loss rather than wait for recovery.
Such behavior often appears during periods of fear and uncertainty.
Although capitulation can sometimes precede market bottoms, it also confirms that investor confidence remains weak.
XRP Ledger Activity Has Slowed Significantly
Network activity has also declined sharply.
Data shows that XRP Ledger transaction fees have dropped from approximately 5,900 XRP per day in February 2025 to around 500 XRP today.
That represents a decline of more than 91%.
Lower transaction fees reduce costs for users, but they also suggest significantly lower transaction demand across the network.
Healthy bull markets are typically accompanied by increasing activity, growing usage, and rising transaction volume.
The current decline makes it difficult to argue that XRP’s price weakness is occurring alongside expanding network adoption.
Instead, both market activity and network activity have weakened simultaneously.
Binance Reserves Continue Falling
Despite the bearish backdrop, exchange supply data has provided one potentially positive development.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain, Binance’s XRP reserves have declined to approximately 2.69 billion tokens.
The figure marks the lowest reserve level observed in roughly four months.
Historically, falling exchange balances can indicate that investors are moving assets into private wallets or long-term storage rather than keeping them available for immediate sale.
Reduced exchange supply often lowers short-term selling pressure.
However, reserve declines are not always a direct sign of accumulation.
Tokens may move because of:
- Custody transfers
- Internal wallet management
- Cross-platform transfers
- Institutional storage changes
As a result, reserve declines should be viewed as a supportive signal rather than definitive proof of bullish demand.
Why Falling Reserves Alone Are Not Enough
History provides an important lesson for XRP investors.
Previous periods of declining exchange reserves have not always resulted in immediate price rallies.
In several cases, XRP continued falling even as balances left major exchanges.
The reason is simple:
Supply matters, but demand matters more.
Without new buyers entering the market, lower exchange balances alone cannot generate a sustained uptrend.
For a meaningful recovery to develop, XRP will need stronger spot demand, improving sentiment, and renewed network activity.
Key Levels Traders Are Watching
Several price levels now stand out as critical.
Support Levels
- $1.10 immediate support
- $1.00 psychological support
- $0.90 major support
- $0.60 deeper macro support
Resistance Levels
- $1.16 short-term resistance
- $1.21 recovery level
- $1.26 Supertrend resistance
- $1.33 broader resistance zone
- $1.66 major bullish trigger
The most important level currently remains $1.26.
A sustained move above that area would weaken the bearish trend and improve the probability of a larger recovery.
What Happens Next?
The short-term outlook depends largely on whether buyers can successfully defend the $1.10 support zone.
A rebound from current levels could trigger a relief rally toward $1.16 and $1.21.
Beyond that, attention would shift toward the critical $1.26-$1.33 resistance band.
Conversely, a breakdown below $1.10 would increase the risk of a move toward $1.00 and potentially $0.90.
At the moment, the market remains caught between oversold momentum and deteriorating fundamentals.
Final Thoughts
XRP’s recent decline has pushed the token into oversold territory, creating conditions that could support a short-term rebound. Falling Binance reserves may also help reduce immediate selling pressure.
However, several challenges remain.
Realized losses continue to dominate profits, XRP Ledger activity has weakened substantially, and the broader technical structure remains bearish until key resistance levels are reclaimed.
For now, the battle centers on $1.10 support and $1.26 resistance.
Until XRP breaks above that resistance zone, traders are likely to remain cautious, while long-term investors continue watching for signs that network activity and demand are beginning to recover.
