Bitcoin is struggling to climb back above the $95,000 level after dropping sharply to a local low near $89,000 a slide that triggered a noticeable jump in implied volatility across the market. Although BTC has bounced slightly, the broader trend still points to caution.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading around $92,858, roughly 1.8% higher on the day, but still down 9% over the past week and 14% over the month. After hitting a record high of $126,080 on Oct. 6, the crypto giant has now corrected by 26%.
Spot traders appear to be stepping back, with daily spot volume dipping by 2.3% to $83.8 billion. But derivatives traders are far more active. Futures volume jumped almost 15% to $123.2 billion, and open interest climbed 3.9% to $67.4 billion a sign that traders are hedging, increasing shorts, or positioning for bigger moves ahead rather than betting on an immediate recovery.
On-chain data signals weakening demand
A Nov. 19 report from GlassNode reveals that Bitcoin has slipped below the short-term holder cost basis and the −1 standard deviation band. This means many recent buyers are now underwater, creating a heavy resistance zone between $95,000 and $97,000.
The first real confirmation of market strength would be a clean breakout above that range.
The report also highlights:
- Large spikes in implied volatility across all options maturities
- Unwinding of speculative leverage
- Notable withdrawals from spot Bitcoin ETFs
- A strong bias toward protective puts, especially at the $90K strike
The DVOL index, which tracks expected volatility from options pricing, has surged to a monthly high — suggesting bigger price swings could be coming soon.
Short-term holders are currently realizing losses of about $523 million per day, their highest level since the FTX collapse. The next key support sits near $88,600, the Active Investors’ Realised Price. Below that, major structural support lies at $82,000. A breakdown under that region could amplify the bearish trend.
Technical analysis: Downtrend firmly intact
Bitcoin is trading below all major moving averages, and the widening Bollinger Bands show strong downward momentum, with price hugging the lower band. The RSI is around 36 weak but not yet extremely oversold.
Some indicators hint at the possibility of a brief relief bounce. The Commodity Channel Index and Momentum have both flipped positive, meaning that if volatility cools, BTC could push higher in the short term. However:
- MACD remains heavily negative
- ADX at 40 confirms the strength of the downtrend
For sentiment to improve meaningfully, Bitcoin must reclaim $95,000, and ideally $97,000. Failure to do so would keep the door open for another sweep of $90,000, with a potential drop into the upper-$80,000 range if selling pressure intensifies.
