XRP is trading near $1.35 as investors brace for the January U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, a key macro event that could determine the token’s next breakout or breakdown.
Markets expect inflation to remain sticky, with headline CPI projected to tick slightly higher month-over-month and annual inflation hovering around 2.5%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is also expected to show persistent price pressures.
The data could significantly influence Federal Reserve policy expectations and in turn, crypto markets.
Why CPI matters for XRP
If inflation comes in hotter than expected, it could reduce the likelihood of near-term Fed rate cuts. That scenario would likely strengthen the U.S. dollar and pressure risk assets, including cryptocurrencies like XRP.
On the other hand, a softer CPI print could revive expectations of monetary easing, weakening the dollar and potentially triggering a relief rally across digital assets.
For XRP, which has been struggling to regain upside momentum, the CPI release could act as a short-term catalyst.
XRP price analysis and key levels
On the daily chart, XRP remains in a clear downtrend that began in early January. The token failed to sustain levels above the $2.20–$2.30 zone and has since printed a series of lower highs and lower lows.
XRP is currently trading well below its 50-day Simple Moving Average near $1.84, confirming bearish momentum.
Key support levels:
- $1.30 (immediate support)
- $1.20 (recent swing low)
- $1.00 (psychological support if $1.20 breaks)
A break below $1.20 could open the door toward the $1.00 region, especially if CPI surprises to the upside.
Key resistance levels:
- $1.40 (initial resistance)
- $1.60 (short-term recovery target)
- $1.80–$1.85 (50-day SMA and strong resistance zone)
Price action is currently compressing near $1.35, signaling market indecision ahead of the inflation data.
Momentum indicators show weakness
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator sits around -0.12, remaining in negative territory. This suggests continued capital outflows and weak buying pressure.
Until CMF moves sustainably above zero and XRP reclaims the 50-day SMA, the broader bias remains bearish.
XRP price prediction
- Hot CPI scenario: XRP could break below $1.30 and retest the $1.20 support zone.
- Soft CPI scenario: A relief rally toward $1.40 is likely, with potential extension toward $1.60 if momentum builds.
For now, XRP remains technically fragile. The January CPI print may determine whether the token stages a short-term rebound or extends its current downtrend.
