Bitwise, the well-known asset management firm, has just released its Mid-Year Scorecard, offering fresh predictions for the second half of 2025 and reflecting on how accurate its forecasts were for the year so far. The report, published on June 30, was authored by Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and head of research Ryan Rasmussen as a follow-up to the bold predictions they made back in December 2024.
Bitcoin Still Eyed for $200,000, While ETH and SOL Outlooks Cool
In December, Bitwise boldly predicted that Bitcoin would hit $200,000 in 2025. So far, they’ve been half right: Bitcoin did reach a new all-time high, but it only climbed to $112,000 in May, falling short of the $200,000 target.
Bitwise attributes Bitcoin’s strong performance this year to robust ETF inflows, significant purchases by corporate treasuries, and the formation of a U.S. government Bitcoin stockpile. Despite not hitting their initial price target yet, Hougan and Rasmussen remain bullish. They believe Bitcoin could still hit $200,000 by year-end, citing factors like the pro-crypto stance of the Trump Administration’s second term, growing institutional demand, and the expansion of stablecoins.
However, their outlook for Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL) has become more cautious. While initially predicting new all-time highs for both, Bitwise has now scaled back those expectations, acknowledging that momentum hasn’t materialized as hoped. They see a potential catalyst in stablecoin ETF approvals and growth of treasury adoption for ETH and SOL, but admit those trends are still emerging.
Mixed Results on Other Crypto Predictions
Bitwise had forecast that 2025 would outpace 2024 in Bitcoin ETF inflows, which totaled $35 billion last year. So far, 2025 has seen only $13 billion in inflows. Despite the slower numbers, Bitwise remains optimistic, noting that more platforms are starting to support Bitcoin ETFs, laying the groundwork for future growth.
Another area where Bitwise retains confidence is in the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs). The firm predicts that the total value of tokenized assets like real estate will exceed $50 billion by the end of 2025. So far, the market has grown from $13 billion at the start of the year to $25 billion—a solid trajectory toward that target.
In December 2024, Bitwise also predicted that the number of countries holding Bitcoin would double from nine to 18. While that hasn’t happened publicly, Hougan and Rasmussen suspect that some nations are quietly accumulating Bitcoin behind the scenes.
Bitwise initially projected that stablecoins’ assets under management (AUM) would hit $400 billion in 2025. While they now admit that figure may have been too high, they still anticipate strong growth, thanks to potential policy developments like the GENIUS Act and major corporate initiatives such as Mastercard’s push to integrate stablecoins across its vast network of 150 million merchants. Stablecoins currently hold around $230 billion in AUM.
Bitwise also conceded a few misses in its predictions. The firm admitted that it was wrong in forecasting that Coinbase would surpass Charles Schwab as the most valuable brokerage in 2025. However, they were right that Coinbase would join the S&P 500 this year.
Another swing and a miss was Bitwise’s belief that the AI memecoin craze would become even bigger in 2025 than it was in 2024. Instead, enthusiasm for tokens like LIBRA, Official Trump, and MELANIA has cooled significantly.
Challenges Facing Bitwise’s Optimism
Despite the positive outlook, there are obstacles that could temper Bitwise’s optimism, especially when it comes to Bitcoin’s price prospects.
While the Trump Administration has generally supported crypto, there have been notable setbacks. Crypto lobbyists recently failed to get pro-crypto amendments into the administration’s “big, beautiful tax bill,” and efforts to establish a clear framework for stablecoin regulation have sparked fierce partisan battles in Congress.
One disappointment has been the creation of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Although announced with much fanfare, it turned out to consist only of bitcoins seized by authorities, with no plans for fresh purchases using government funds. To make matters murkier, while officials discussed auditing the reserve, no results have been made public, leaving questions about whether the government truly controls the over 200,000 bitcoins it claims to hold.
Efforts by Senator Cynthia Lummis, who pushed to have the government buy at least a million bitcoins for strategic reserves, have so far failed, as did her attempts to include crypto-friendly tax breaks in new legislation.
Still, there are positives: the SEC has dropped several Biden-era cases against large crypto companies, and the broader tone from the Trump Administration remains pro-crypto.
While the path forward for crypto markets remains uncertain, Bitwise appears determined to stick with its high-conviction call that Bitcoin could still soar to $200,000 before the year is out—even if some of its other predictions need adjusting.
