Dogecoin has slipped into a technical bear market after dropping more than 37% from its September peak. With momentum weakening across multiple indicators and ETF inflows slowing, analysts warn that DOGE may be on the verge of forming a death cross one of the most bearish chart patterns in crypto trading.
DOGE fell to $0.1900, its lowest level since Oct. 12, giving the meme coin a market capitalization of just over $28 billion. It now sits 60% below its 2025 high.
The decline comes as the broader market digests last week’s sharp crash, which triggered roughly $365 million in liquidations across DOGE futures. The event has pushed many investors to the sidelines, causing demand and trading activity to cool significantly.
DOGE ETF Growth Stalls
One of the biggest red flags is the slowdown in inflows to the REX-Osprey DOGE ETF (DOJE), which launched recently. The fund currently holds around $31 million in assets a figure that hasn’t grown this week.
Although the ETF’s 1.5% expense ratio hasn’t deterred early adopters, the stagnant inflows suggest that institutional enthusiasm has temporarily cooled.
Funding Rates and Open Interest Drop
Dogecoin is also facing pressure in the derivatives market:
- The funding rate has stayed negative for two days, signaling that traders expect further downside.
- Futures open interest has plunged dramatically from $6 billion in September to $1.92 billion today.
Falling open interest usually indicates reduced conviction among traders and a shift toward risk-off behavior.
Could ETF Approvals Help DOGE Recover?
Some analysts believe that a potential resolution of the ongoing government shutdown could unlock additional ETF approvals, possibly injecting new demand into the DOGE market. However, for now, investor sentiment remains firmly cautious.
Dogecoin Technical Analysis: Death Cross Imminent
Technical indicators paint a worrisome picture.
DOGE recently broke down from a bearish rising wedge, a pattern known for signaling trend reversals. It has also slipped below both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, with the gap between the two narrowing a setup that often precedes a death cross.
Other indicators show growing weakness:
- The RSI has dropped below 50 and is heading toward oversold territory.
- The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) is now below the zero line, confirming bearish momentum.
If sellers maintain control, Dogecoin could retest its year-to-date low of $0.1515. A breakdown below that level would confirm extended downside risk in the near term.
