Solana has entered one of its most challenging periods of 2026 after losing more than 21% of its value from recent highs. The popular layer-1 blockchain token is now trading near a critical support zone around $60, leaving investors questioning whether the next major move could take SOL back toward $40.
While Solana continues to benefit from strong network development and upcoming infrastructure upgrades, recent market conditions have shifted heavily in favor of sellers. Whale profit-taking, weakening DeFi activity, and broader crypto market weakness have all combined to create significant downward pressure on the asset.
Solana Faces Heavy Selling Pressure
Solana traded around $66 on June 9 after briefly falling to a yearly low near $60 during last week’s market-wide crypto liquidation event. The decline accelerated as long-term holders reduced their exposure significantly.
Data showed that wallets holding SOL for at least 155 days reduced their net positions from approximately 3.27 million SOL at the end of May to around 2.36 million SOL by June 6. Such activity often signals that experienced investors are locking in profits or reducing risk during uncertain market conditions.
The selling pressure intensified as traders across the broader crypto market moved toward a more defensive approach amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
DeFi Activity Continues to Slow
Beyond investor selling, activity across the Solana ecosystem has weakened noticeably.
Several key metrics have declined:
- DeFi total value locked dropped 9.55% during the week.
- Solana’s share of decentralized exchange volume fell from 30.4% to 22.6%.
- Memecoin trading activity slowed considerably.
- On-chain liquidity decreased across multiple sectors.
The decline in speculative trading is particularly important because memecoin activity has been one of Solana’s strongest growth drivers throughout recent market cycles.
As trading activity cools, demand for SOL naturally weakens.
Corporate Treasury Sale Adds More Supply
Another factor contributing to the recent decline came from corporate treasury activity.
SOL Strategies disclosed the sale of 65,001 SOL at an average price of CAD$87.88, generating approximately CAD$5.75 million to reduce outstanding debt. The transaction marked the company’s first publicly reported Solana sale since September 2025.
Although relatively small compared to Solana’s overall market capitalization, treasury sales can negatively affect market sentiment, particularly when they occur during already weak market conditions.
Technical Charts Point to Critical Support
From a technical perspective, Solana has reached a decisive point.
The token recently fell below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level near $74 and broke beneath a descending channel that had guided price action throughout much of 2026. This breakdown has shifted attention toward the $60–$65 support area.
Analysts now view this range as one of the most important support zones on the chart.
If buyers fail to defend it, Solana could open the door to a much deeper correction.
Could SOL Fall to $40?
Several analysts believe the possibility cannot be ignored.
Market analyst cyclop recently noted that a breakdown below current support levels could send Solana into the $30–$40 range before the next major recovery begins.
The reasoning comes from long-term trendline analysis. Solana is approaching one of its final major support structures that has connected previous cycle lows since 2021.
If that support fails, historical chart patterns suggest the next significant demand zone sits between $40 and $30.
While this is not the base-case scenario for all analysts, it remains a realistic risk that traders are monitoring closely.
Momentum Indicators Remain Bearish
Technical indicators continue to favor sellers.
Several warning signals remain active:
Negative Capital Flows
The Chaikin Money Flow indicator remains around -0.17, suggesting money continues to leave the asset.
Bearish MACD
The MACD remains below its signal line on both daily and weekly timeframes, indicating that downward momentum remains dominant.
Weak Stochastic RSI
The weekly Stochastic RSI recently turned lower after rejecting overbought territory, another sign that bullish momentum has faded.
Collectively, these indicators suggest that buyers have not yet regained control of the market.
Recovery Levels to Watch
Although the technical picture remains weak, Solana is not without bullish possibilities.
The first major resistance level sits near $74.
Beyond that, buyers would need to reclaim the $90–$100 range, where several failed rallies occurred earlier in the year.
A sustained move above those levels would significantly improve sentiment and could signal the beginning of a broader recovery.
Until then, rallies may continue to face selling pressure.
Strong Fundamentals Still Support the Long-Term Case
Despite short-term weakness, Solana’s long-term outlook remains supported by ongoing development.
The network recently introduced:
- Native subscriptions
- Spending allowances
- Enhanced payment functionality
These upgrades expand the platform’s utility for developers and users alike.
Even more importantly, two major infrastructure upgrades are approaching.
Alpenglow Upgrade
The Alpenglow consensus overhaul aims to improve network performance and efficiency.
Firedancer Validator Client
The Firedancer upgrade is expected to significantly improve validator performance, scalability, and transaction processing capabilities.
Many investors view these developments as potential catalysts for Solana’s next growth phase once broader market conditions improve.
What Could Push Solana Lower?
Several risks remain capable of driving further downside:
- Additional whale selling
- Weak crypto market liquidity
- Continued decline in DeFi activity
- Reduced institutional demand for altcoins
- Geopolitical uncertainty
- Higher-for-longer interest rate expectations
Any combination of these factors could increase the probability of a move toward the $40 support zone.
Final Thoughts
Solana currently finds itself caught between strong long-term fundamentals and weak short-term technical conditions.
The network continues to innovate through upgrades such as Alpenglow and Firedancer, while developer activity remains robust. However, market participants are currently focused on declining liquidity, whale selling, and deteriorating chart structures.
The $60 support area now represents the most important level for SOL. If buyers successfully defend it, the token could stabilize and begin building a recovery base. If support breaks, the next major target could emerge in the $40 region.
For now, traders and investors alike will be watching closely to see whether Solana’s long-term growth story can overcome one of its most challenging technical setups since the 2022 bear market.
