Major cryptocurrencies traded mostly flat on Thursday, October 21, as traders adopted a wait-and-see stance ahead of the upcoming U.S. inflation data release, a key event likely to influence short-term market direction and Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Market Stays Calm Before the CPI Report
At press time, the global crypto market capitalization stood at $3.75 trillion, down 0.2% in the last 24 hours, reflecting a subdued trading session across most assets.
- Bitcoin (BTC) edged slightly higher, up 0.1% to $108,720
- Ethereum (ETH) slipped 1.1% to $3,839
- BNB gained 0.9% to $1,086
- Solana (SOL) dipped 0.8% to $184
After a volatile start to the week, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose to 27, moving out of the “Extreme Fear” zone and into “Fear,” suggesting early signs of stabilization in sentiment.
According to CoinGlass data, total crypto liquidations fell 30% over the past 24 hours to $499 million, signaling a cooldown in speculative positioning. Open interest across major exchanges also declined 0.57% to $148 billion, while the average crypto RSI hovered around 43, indicating neutral momentum.
Traders Watch U.S. CPI Data for Next Market Move
All eyes are now on the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, scheduled for release on October 24 at 8:30 a.m. ET. The datdelayed earlier this month due to the U.S. government shutdown will also determine the 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment and could play a significant role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
Economists polled by FactSet and Bloomberg expect:
- Headline CPI: +0.4% month-over-month, +3.1% year-over-year
- Core inflation: Steady at 3.1% year-over-year
Crypto’s correlation with equities remains strong, currently around 0.85 with the Nasdaq, suggesting that Bitcoin could dip toward $104,000–$105,000 if inflation runs hotter than expected. Conversely, a softer CPI print might trigger a relief rally toward $110,000 as risk appetite improves.
“Traders are sitting tight until inflation data comes out,” said one market strategist. “Any surprise could swing both crypto and equities sharply in either direction.”
ETF Outflows Reflect Caution Among Institutions
Adding to the cautious tone, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $101.29 million in net outflows on October 22, according to SoSoValue data, ending a brief streak of inflows earlier in the week.
Ethereum ETFs also saw $18.77 million in outflows, as gains in BlackRock’s ETHA product were offset by redemptions from Fidelity and Grayscale funds.
ETF outflows generally signal short-term profit-taking and a decline in institutional conviction. Combined with shrinking open interest, the trend suggests that institutional investors are waiting for clearer macro signals before re-entering high-risk positions.
The Bottom Line
With inflation data around the corner, the crypto market appears to be catching its breath. While technical indicators remain mixed, the broader tone reflects caution rather than capitulation.
A decisive shift either bullish or bearish will likely depend on how U.S. inflation figures influence interest rate expectations and investor risk appetite in the days ahead.
For now, traders are watching closely as Bitcoin hovers near $109,000, Ethereum below $3,900, and sentiment slowly inches away from extreme fear.
