Bitcoin continues to struggle with resistance around the $90,000 level, but behind the scenes, large buyers appear to be steadily absorbing supply raising the question of whether BTC is preparing for a decisive breakout.
According to Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, a so-called “Bitfinex whale” has been purchasing roughly 450 Bitcoin per day at current prices. That figure closely matches the amount of BTC mined globally each day, effectively neutralizing new supply entering the market. Back noted that the buyer had previously accumulated around 300 BTC per day before increasing purchases.
On-chain data supports the idea that large holders are accumulating despite muted price action. Analytics firm Santiment reported that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC — often referred to as whales and sharks — added more than 36,000 Bitcoin over a nine-day period, even as broader market sentiment remained cautious.
Meanwhile, insights from Glassnode suggest Bitcoin remains in what it describes as a “moderate bear phase.” The firm notes that BTC is currently trading near its market mean, which has acted as downside support, while the short-term holder cost basis continues to cap upside momentum.
Glassnode also observed that the recent rebound helped fill an “air gap” left from earlier price declines, redistributing coins from earlier buyers to newer market participants. Above current levels, however, supply remains dense — particularly between $98,000 and $100,000 — where coins are gradually transitioning into long-term holder hands.
Losses, according to Glassnode, have been concentrated among investors who bought between three and six months ago, with additional selling pressure from six- to twelve-month holders. These cohorts appear to be exiting positions as price revisits their entry levels. On the profit side, realized gains have largely come from low-margin sellers and short-term traders opting to take small profits rather than hold through uncertainty.
Derivatives data paints a fragile picture. Glassnode reports that dealer positioning shows short gamma below $90,000 and long gamma above it, creating a zone where price moves can become more volatile. Futures participation remains thin, with shifts in open interest occurring without significant trading volume — a sign of position rotation rather than fresh leverage entering the market.
Options markets are also pricing risk primarily in the near term, with short-dated implied volatility reacting more strongly than longer-dated contracts, suggesting traders are focused on immediate price risks rather than long-term conviction.
On exchanges like Bitfinex, margin long positions declined from recent highs before ticking up slightly during the latest dip, indicating renewed buying interest on pullbacks. Still, the broader trend in leverage remains cautious.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading just below $90,000 after briefly dipping toward $88,000 amid tariff-related macro headlines. Resistance is clustered between $90,000 and $93,400, while strong support lies in the $84,000–$88,000 range.
Looking ahead, many analysts expect Bitcoin to remain in a wide and volatile range over the next three to six months, potentially oscillating between $80,000 and $110,000. Institutional accumulation via ETFs may continue to support dips, but macro forces such as rate-cut expectations, trade tensions, and political uncertainty could trigger sharp liquidations.
On the upside, post-halving dynamics and improving institutional liquidity could pave the way for a retest of the prior $108,000 high and a move into six-figure territory if global risk sentiment stabilizes. On the downside, a sustained break below $80,000 would raise the risk that this cycle’s peak is already in, potentially opening the door to a deeper pullback toward the mid-$60,000s.
