XRP moved closer to the critical $1 support level on Aug. 6 after recording its fourth consecutive daily decline.
The token traded near $1.05 as sellers continued to control the market. Weak technical indicators and fresh outflows from U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded funds have added pressure to an already fragile price structure.
A confirmed daily close below $1 could expose XRP to further losses toward $0.96 and possibly $0.88. However, those lower targets remain conditional projections rather than guaranteed outcomes.
For buyers to regain control, XRP must first recover above $1.11. A stronger reversal would require the token to reclaim higher resistance levels, particularly the $1.50 area.
XRP Extends Its Decline for a Fourth Day
XRP traded between approximately $1.04 and $1.07 during the latest 24-hour period.
The token fell about 1.1% during the session and remained down approximately 64.3% over the previous year.
Its market capitalization stood near $65.5 billion, while daily trading volume reached roughly $1.28 billion.
XRP was also trading about 71% below its July 17, 2025 all-time high of $3.65.
The size of the decline has brought the token back toward the breakout area that helped it move above $1 in late 2024.
That makes the current price zone especially important. Holding above $1 would preserve part of XRP’s earlier recovery structure, while a confirmed breakdown could signal that the market is entering another period of weakness.
The $1 Level Is XRP’s Most Important Support
The psychological $1 level has repeatedly prevented deeper XRP losses since November 2024.
Between February and June, the token spent much of its time trading between approximately $1.18 and $1.55. XRP later fell below the lower end of that range and entered a narrower structure between $1 and $1.18.
Buyers have continued defending the lower boundary, but each rebound has struggled to produce a meaningful higher high.
This pattern suggests that demand remains present near $1, although it has not been strong enough to reverse the wider downtrend.
A daily close below $1 would place XRP beneath the foundation of its earlier recovery. Such a move would not guarantee an immediate collapse, but it would make lower support levels increasingly relevant.
Immediate Support Sits Near $1.04
XRP’s nearest support zone is located between approximately $1.04 and $1.05.
The token was testing this area during the latest session, leaving buyers with limited room before the market returns to the $1 psychological floor.
Former support around $1.055 to $1.06 has also started acting as short-term resistance following a recent trendline breakdown.
When an earlier support level becomes resistance, it can indicate that sellers are defending the same area that buyers previously controlled.
Another rejection near $1.06 could push XRP back toward $1. A deeper decline could then bring the $0.96 level into focus.
A Break Below $1 Could Expose $0.88
Some technical analysts have identified $0.88 as a possible downside target if XRP closes decisively below $1.
The target is based on a measured chart move rather than a confirmed prediction.
Market analyst EGRAG CRYPTO described $1.05 as support but said that holding the level alone would not confirm a recovery.
The analyst identified $1.11 as the first level XRP must reclaim to show renewed strength.
Higher resistance levels were placed at:
- $1.21
- $1.28 to $1.30
- $1.38
- $1.50 to $1.51
A strong three-day close above $1.50 could offer more convincing evidence that XRP has established a lasting bottom.
Until then, short-term rebounds may remain vulnerable to renewed selling.
Deeper Support Levels Remain Possible
A daily close below $1 could first bring attention to $0.96 and then $0.88.
Other longer-term technical analyses have identified $0.85 and $0.70 as potential support zones if the psychological floor fails.
The possibility of XRP eventually returning toward $0.50 has also been discussed. However, there is currently no confirmed technical signal showing that such a move will happen.
Price targets should be treated as possible scenarios rather than guaranteed outcomes.
A recovery above nearby resistance could invalidate the most bearish projections, while continued weakness below $1 would make them more relevant.
XRP Remains in a Wider Downtrend
XRP’s broader market structure continues to show weakness.
The token has produced a sequence of lower highs since reaching $3.65 in July 2025.
Several periods of consolidation have produced temporary rebounds, but none has developed into a sustained recovery.
Lower highs indicate that buyers are repeatedly losing momentum before the price can return to previous peaks.
This structure normally remains bearish until the asset begins reclaiming key resistance levels and establishing higher highs and higher lows.
For XRP, a move above $1.11 would represent an early improvement. A break above $1.21 would begin challenging the recent pattern, while a recovery toward $1.50 would offer much stronger confirmation.
XRP ETF Outflows Weaken Institutional Demand
U.S. spot XRP ETFs recorded approximately $3.58 million in combined net outflows on Aug. 5.
The withdrawals occurred while XRP traded near the lower end of its daily range.
The amount was relatively small compared with the funds’ cumulative inflows, but it added to signs that institutional demand has slowed.
ETF demand can support a cryptocurrency by allowing regulated investment products to purchase and hold the underlying asset.
However, ETF inflows do not automatically cause prices to rise. Selling in spot markets, derivatives activity and broader investor sentiment can outweigh fund purchases.
The latest outflow suggests that regulated products are not currently providing enough demand to change XRP’s wider trend.
Nine-Week ETF Inflow Streak Ended in July
XRP investment funds ended a nine-week inflow streak earlier in July.
Several sessions also recorded little or no net movement, indicating that institutional investors had become more cautious.
Even during periods when XRP ETFs were absorbing supply, the token continued to struggle.
This shows that ETF purchases alone were not strong enough to offset broader selling pressure.
A renewed series of consistent inflows could improve sentiment, but the market would still need technical confirmation through higher prices and stronger trading momentum.
Ripple’s European Progress Has Not Lifted XRP
XRP’s weakness has continued despite regulatory progress by Ripple.
The company reportedly received full authorization under the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets framework on July 6.
Ripple said its Luxembourg licence allows it to provide regulated cryptocurrency services across all 30 countries in the European Economic Area.
The authorization represents an important milestone for Ripple’s European business.
However, regulatory success for the company does not guarantee stronger demand for XRP.
Ripple and XRP are closely associated, but they are not the same thing. Ripple’s business expansion, partnerships and licences may improve the broader ecosystem without immediately creating buying pressure for the token.
RSI Shows Weak Momentum
XRP’s daily relative strength index stood at approximately 39.47.
The indicator was also below its moving average of 44.14.
An RSI below 50 generally reflects weak market momentum and suggests that sellers remain more influential than buyers.
However, XRP’s RSI was not yet deeply oversold.
An oversold reading may sometimes appear when selling has become excessive, although it does not guarantee an immediate recovery.
The current reading indicates that XRP remains weak but could still experience additional downside before traditional oversold conditions appear.
MACD Remains Bearish
The moving average convergence divergence indicator also continued to show negative momentum.
The MACD line stood near minus 0.0130, below the signal line at approximately minus 0.0108.
Its histogram remained negative near minus 0.0023.
When the MACD line stays below the signal line and the histogram remains negative, it generally indicates that bearish momentum is still active.
These readings do not confirm that XRP will fall below $1. They show that the market has not yet produced a reliable momentum reversal.
A bullish crossover, combined with improving price action and stronger trading volume, would provide a more encouraging signal.
Former Support Has Become Resistance
Analyst Cryptorphic identified the $1.055 to $1.06 region as immediate resistance after XRP broke below its trendline.
The analyst suggested that another rejection from this zone could send XRP toward $1 or $0.96.
That scenario depends on sellers continuing to prevent the token from reclaiming the former support level.
A move above $1.06 would reduce some immediate pressure, although it would not be enough to confirm a wider trend reversal.
Buyers would still need to recover $1.11 and then challenge the higher resistance levels.
What XRP Buyers Need to Do
The immediate battle is taking place between $1 and $1.11.
Holding above $1 would keep XRP inside its current range and allow buyers another opportunity to recover.
A move above $1.11 would represent the first meaningful sign that short-term demand is improving.
The next important level would be $1.21. Recovering that area would challenge the recent sequence of lower highs.
Further resistance could appear between $1.28 and $1.30, followed by $1.38.
A sustained recovery above $1.50 would offer much stronger evidence that the downtrend is weakening.
What Happens if XRP Falls Below $1?
A confirmed daily close below $1 would strengthen the bearish outlook.
The first likely areas of interest would be $0.96 and $0.88.
Investors would need to watch whether the move occurs with increased volume. A high-volume breakdown would generally carry more significance than a brief move below support followed by a quick recovery.
A false breakdown is also possible.
In that situation, XRP could temporarily fall below $1 before recovering and closing back above the level. Such a move may trap short sellers and create the conditions for a rebound.
This is why traders often wait for a daily or multi-day close rather than reacting to a short intraday move.
ETF Benchmark Change Is Not a Price Signal
A U.S. regulatory filing shows that the sponsor of the 21Shares XRP ETF plans to enter a new benchmark agreement with FTSE around Aug. 24.
The fund’s existing agreement with CF Benchmarks is expected to end on Aug. 31.
The operational change relates to how the ETF calculates or tracks its reference price.
It does not indicate whether the fund will experience future inflows or outflows, and it does not predict XRP’s market direction.
Investors should therefore avoid interpreting the benchmark change as a bullish or bearish price catalyst.
Broader Market Conditions Could Influence XRP
XRP’s next move will not depend solely on its own technical chart.
Bitcoin’s direction, cryptocurrency market liquidity and investor risk appetite could all affect the token.
If the broader crypto market weakens, XRP may find it more difficult to defend the $1 level.
A recovery across Bitcoin and major altcoins could give XRP buyers more support, particularly if ETF inflows also return.
Macroeconomic developments, interest-rate expectations and regulatory announcements may also influence market sentiment.
XRP Faces a Critical Decision Point
XRP is approaching one of its most important support tests since moving above $1 in late 2024.
The token remains under pressure from four consecutive daily declines, weak technical momentum and slowing ETF demand.
Holding $1 would preserve the current trading structure and keep the possibility of another recovery alive.
A close below that level could expose XRP to $0.96 and the speculative $0.88 target.
On the upside, buyers must reclaim $1.11 before the market can show meaningful short-term improvement. A move above $1.50 would provide much stronger evidence that XRP has established a bottom and begun a broader reversal.
Until those resistance levels are recovered, sellers are likely to remain in control.
