While the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) continues to postpone decisions across the crypto ETF landscape, Bloomberg analysts remain optimistic about approval prospects for a range of key filings. Projections for approval range from 75% to 90%, with several top assets expected to see green lights in 2025.
Bloomberg Analysts Predict Strong Approval Chances
Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, two of the most closely followed ETF analysts, have released their latest outlook on the likelihood of approval for various spot crypto ETFs currently under SEC review. According to their forecast:
- Litecoin (LTC), Solana (SOL), and crypto basket/index ETFs (including the Grayscale GBTC conversion) each carry a 90% approval probability.
- Ripple (XRP) holds an 85% chance, with ongoing classification questions keeping it just shy of top-tier certainty.
- Dogecoin (DOGE) and Hedera (HBAR) both have 80% odds.
- Avalanche (AVAX), Cardano (ADA), and Polkadot (DOT) each trail slightly with 75% likelihood.
Balchunas noted on X, “Would love to hear directly from [SEC Commissioner] Atkins, but all have a good chance of happening.”
The strong approval forecasts are largely due to the SEC’s evolving view of several of these tokens as commodities, especially in the wake of CFTC’s April 21 classification of XRP as a regulated asset for futures trading.
SEC Postpones Final Decisions Across Multiple ETFs
Despite the bullish odds, the SEC has recently delayed a wave of ETF decisions, pushing many final determinations further into late 2025. Notable updates include:
- Franklin Templeton’s spot Solana ETF – delayed, final deadline now October 7
- Franklin Templeton’s spot XRP ETF – final deadline moved to November 5
- Grayscale’s Hedera ETF and Bitwise’s Dogecoin ETF – final decision now due by October 8
- Fidelity’s spot Ethereum ETF – decision on staking provision still pending, no final date announced
- Bitwise’s spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs – new deadlines set for June 10 and June 11, respectively
- Canary Capital’s Hedera ETF – decision also delayed
These delays underscore the SEC’s cautious approach, even as regulatory sentiment toward crypto ETFs appears to be warming.
The Road Ahead for Crypto ETFs
With mounting institutional demand and growing public interest, the crypto ETF space continues to expand. The recent wave of spot Bitcoin ETF approvals earlier this year marked a major breakthrough, but further adoption hinges on how swiftly and decisively regulators act on newer filings involving altcoins and multi-asset products.
The high probability projections from Bloomberg suggest that despite procedural delays, regulatory barriers may be weakening. However, final outcomes will ultimately depend on evolving classifications and the SEC’s internal posture toward digital assets in the broader U.S. financial system.
