Circle’s stock is showing renewed strength despite growing competition in the stablecoin market and a recent bearish outlook from Wall Street analysts.
Shares of Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) continued climbing after fresh data revealed that USDC processed more than twice the adjusted trading volume of Tether’s USDT during June 2026. The strong transaction activity helped ease investor concerns surrounding the launch of rival stablecoin OUSD and reinforced USDC’s position as one of the world’s leading digital dollars.
Although analysts remain cautious about future competition, Circle continues to attract institutional support while its stock attempts to build a technical recovery.
USDC leads stablecoin trading volume
According to Visa data shared by Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl, stablecoins processed a record $1.78 trillion in adjusted trading volume during June.
USDC accounted for approximately $1.21 trillion, representing around 67% of all stablecoin trading activity during the month.
By comparison, USDT recorded approximately $573 billion in adjusted trading volume.
While Tether remained the leader in transaction count—with roughly 145 million transfers compared to USDC’s 57 million—Circle’s stablecoin handled significantly more value, highlighting its growing role in institutional and high-value payments.
Circle stock rises despite bearish analyst warning
Circle’s strong market performance comes despite a cautious outlook from investment bank Jefferies.
On July 2, the firm advised investors to remain cautious on Circle shares, arguing that the launch of OUSD could increase competition within the stablecoin market and pressure Circle’s long-term valuation.
The warning followed one of Circle’s largest single-day declines since March after OUSD’s launch and the company’s removal from several Russell Indexes.
However, investor sentiment quickly improved.
Circle shares closed nearly 4% higher at $64 on July 2 before climbing to around $66 in pre-market trading on July 6, suggesting the market has become less concerned about the immediate competitive threat.
Questions emerge around OUSD partnership claims
Some of the initial excitement surrounding OUSD has also faded.
After Open Standard announced support from more than 140 industry partners, reports emerged that companies including Samsung and Dunamu had distanced themselves from the project.
Those developments raised questions about the scope of OUSD’s ecosystem and reduced some of the competitive pressure investors initially expected Circle to face.
Although OUSD remains a potential long-term competitor, uncertainty surrounding its launch appears to have eased immediate concerns.
Institutional investors continue buying
Large investors also continued showing confidence in Circle.
On the same day that Jefferies issued its bearish report, ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, disclosed the purchase of approximately $17.8 million worth of Circle shares.
The investment suggests that some institutional investors remain optimistic about Circle’s long-term growth despite increasing competition in the stablecoin sector.
USDC supply declines slightly
Despite leading the market in transaction value, USDC’s circulating supply has experienced a modest decline.
Circle’s stablecoin market capitalization fell from approximately $73.75 billion on June 30 to around $72.87 billion by July 6.
The decrease suggests that some capital may have temporarily shifted into competing stablecoins following OUSD’s launch.
Even so, USDC continues to dominate adjusted transaction volume, indicating that institutional users remain highly active on the network.
Technical recovery still faces resistance
From a technical perspective, Circle shares have begun recovering after finding strong support near the $61.73 Fibonacci extension.
The stock has rebounded from roughly $62 to nearly $66, showing buyers are gradually returning.
However, the broader trend remains uncertain.
CRCL continues trading below its Supertrend resistance, currently positioned around $75.66.
A breakout above that level would provide the first strong technical confirmation that bullish momentum is returning.
Momentum indicators are also improving.
The MACD histogram has nearly returned to neutral territory, suggesting selling pressure is weakening.
However, the MACD line has not yet crossed above the signal line, meaning a confirmed bullish reversal has yet to occur.
Key price levels to watch
If buyers successfully break above the Supertrend resistance, analysts are watching several upside targets:
- $78.47
- $91.61
- $100.84
On the downside, failure to hold support near $61.73 could weaken the current recovery and expose the stock to another decline.
Outlook
Circle continues to demonstrate resilience despite growing competition in the stablecoin market.
USDC’s dominant share of stablecoin transaction volume, combined with continued institutional buying, has helped offset concerns raised by Jefferies regarding the launch of OUSD.
While technical indicators suggest the stock is beginning to recover, CRCL must still overcome major resistance before confirming a broader trend reversal.
For now, Circle appears well positioned as USDC continues leading the stablecoin market in transaction value, even as competition across the sector continues to intensify.
