The Avalanche (AVAX) price has tumbled to a crucial support level after a sharp 72% drawdown from its November highs, putting the token under intense pressure just days before one of its most important network upgrades.
AVAX traded near $15.67, a level it has defended multiple times since March. The steep decline has cut Avalanche’s market cap nearly in half, dropping from $13 billion to just $6.7 billion.
Granite Upgrade to Go Live This Week
Despite the price crash, Avalanche is preparing for a major milestone. The Granite mainnet upgrade which has been running on the Fuji testnet for months goes live on November 19.
Granite is considered one of the most significant upgrades in Avalanche’s history. Key improvements include:
- Enhanced cross-chain messaging
- Biometric authentication support
- Dynamic block times for faster, more efficient transactions
- Broader upgrades aimed at scaling and improving developer experience
The activation comes at a time when Avalanche is seeing rapid network expansion.
Network Activity Strengthens Despite Market Pressure
Data from Nansen highlights notable growth:
- Transactions: Up 102% in 30 days → 63 million
- Active users: Up 7% → 719,340
However, Avalanche is not immune to broader market headwinds.
Key metrics showing weakness:
- Stablecoin supply: Down 2.52% to $2.15B
- DEX volume: Down to $108M, far below the $407M monthly high
- Total Value Locked (TVL): Down to $2.05B, from a YTD high of $3.51B
Funding rates and open interest have also been cooling, reflecting declining trader confidence.
Technical Analysis: AVAX Faces Make-or-Break Moment
AVAX has fallen from $36 in October to around $15.25, settling into a key support zone that has held firm since March 10.
Technical indicators paint a cautious picture:
Bearish Signals
- Price sitting at the weak stop & reverse level of the Murrey Math Lines
- A confirmed death cross, as the 50-EMA crosses below the 200-EMA
- Overall bearish market structure
Key Levels to Watch
- Break below $15.26:
→ Could trigger a deeper correction toward $12.50, the ultimate support - Bounce from support:
→ Could fuel a relief rally toward the $25 major S/R pivot
Traders are watching whether buyers step in ahead of the Granite upgrade or whether macro bearishness continues to drag the token lower.
