Bitcoin’s market trend looks unusually strong on paper, but one important demand indicator is telling a very different story.
CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull Score recently climbed to 90 out of 100 after BTC broke above its 365-day moving average, signaling that most of the firm’s trend indicators are firmly in bullish territory.
At the same time, CryptoQuant’s estimate of apparent Bitcoin demand contracted by roughly 170,000 BTC over the previous 30 days.
The two readings may seem contradictory, but they measure different parts of the market.
The Bull Score reflects the strength of the existing trend.
The apparent-demand measure, meanwhile, attempts to estimate whether new buyers are absorbing available Bitcoin supply fast enough.
That distinction matters after Bitcoin briefly climbed to around $87,400 before pulling back toward $83,300 on Sept. 30.
What does a Bitcoin Bull Score of 90 really mean?
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score combines several onchain and market indicators into a single composite reading.
The score strengthened after Bitcoin moved above its 365-day moving average, a level CryptoQuant uses as one indication of a bullish market regime.
A score of 90 means that most of the indicators included in the model currently meet bullish conditions.
However, it does not mean Bitcoin has a 90% chance of going higher.
It is also not a direct measure of how many investors are actively buying Bitcoin.
Many trend indicators naturally improve after price has already moved higher.
A breakout above a long-term moving average confirms strength that has already appeared in the market, but it does not identify who will buy the next wave of coins offered for sale.
That means Bitcoin can maintain a strong Bull Score even if the number of new marginal buyers begins to weaken.
Bitcoin demand contracted by roughly 170,000 BTC
CryptoQuant’s apparent-demand measure tells a different story.
The firm estimated that apparent Bitcoin demand contracted by approximately 170,000 BTC over the previous 30 days.
That number should not be interpreted as 170,000 BTC being dumped onto exchanges.
It is a change in CryptoQuant’s demand estimate rather than a direct record of executed sales.
The metric attempts to measure shifts in Bitcoin supply held for longer periods relative to newly issued coins.
Its main value lies in showing whether longer-term accumulation appears to be strengthening or weakening.
The recent contraction suggests that net absorption has slowed even while Bitcoin’s broader price trend remains bullish.
The 170,000 BTC figure is much larger than new mining supply
The size of the demand contraction becomes clearer when compared with Bitcoin’s newly issued supply.
Bitcoin currently has a block subsidy of 3.125 BTC.
At roughly 144 blocks per day, miners produce approximately 450 new BTC every 24 hours.
Over 30 days, that works out to roughly 13,500 BTC, depending on actual block production.
The 170,000 BTC change in apparent demand is therefore more than 12 times larger than one month of newly mined supply.
That does not mean miners sold 170,000 BTC.
Instead, it shows how changes in existing holders’ behavior can have a much larger impact on market liquidity than newly created Bitcoin alone.
ETF demand was strong during the breakout
One clearly identifiable source of Bitcoin demand came from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The funds recorded approximately $2.39 billion in net inflows during the five trading sessions ending Sept. 25.
The strongest sessions included around $999 million on Sept. 21 and approximately $714.7 million on Sept. 22.
Those inflows demonstrate that one important class of investors was actively adding Bitcoin exposure during the breakout.
However, ETF inflows cover a much shorter period than CryptoQuant’s rolling 30-day apparent-demand measure.
This means both indicators can be correct at the same time.
The market may have experienced weaker demand earlier in the month before ETF buying accelerated during the breakout.
How much Bitcoin could $2.39 billion buy?
At an illustrative Bitcoin price of $84,000, $2.39 billion would represent purchasing power equal to roughly 28,450 BTC.
That figure is useful for understanding the scale of ETF demand.
However, it is not an exact count of Bitcoin purchased by the funds.
Actual ETF acquisitions occur at different prices and through market makers, authorized participants and custodians.
The approximate 28,450 BTC equivalent is also much smaller than the 170,000 BTC change in CryptoQuant’s 30-day apparent-demand estimate.
The two figures should not simply be subtracted from one another because they use different methodologies, periods and definitions.
Still, the comparison helps explain why several strong ETF sessions may not immediately reverse a month-long deterioration in broader demand.
ETF inflows do not tell the whole Bitcoin demand story
Spot Bitcoin ETF flows are among the easiest institutional demand sources to track, but they represent only one part of the market.
ETF investors generally own shares in a fund rather than taking direct custody of Bitcoin.
Authorized participants and other intermediaries handle the process of creating and redeeming shares and arranging the corresponding Bitcoin exposure.
That structure means the timing of reported ETF flows does not necessarily match the exact moment Bitcoin is purchased in the spot market.
A large daily ETF inflow confirms that aggregate exposure increased, but it cannot prove that the full amount entered spot markets at one precise time.
ETF demand has also been uneven
The latest inflow streak has been strong, but ETF demand has not moved in only one direction.
Earlier in September, U.S. spot Bitcoin funds recorded approximately $746.3 million in combined outflows across Sept. 15 and Sept. 16.
Demand later returned strongly.
This sequence demonstrates why ETF flows should not be treated as a permanently open source of buying.
Investors can subscribe, pause or redeem depending on market conditions.
A rolling 30-day demand measure naturally captures both weak and strong periods.
Long-term holders may be supplying Bitcoin into the rally
One possible source of selling pressure is long-term holders taking profits after Bitcoin’s strong advance.
Profit taking during a rally does not necessarily mean investors have turned bearish.
Many holders who accumulated Bitcoin at lower prices may simply decide to realize some gains while the market is strong.
Recent analysis cited realized profits for long-term holders at roughly 72% as of Sept. 25.
That was far below the nearly 350% comparison observed during December 2024.
The difference suggests that the current market does not necessarily resemble an extreme late-cycle distribution event.
However, continued selling from older holders still creates supply that new buyers must absorb.
Falling exchange balances do not mean nobody is selling
Exchange reserve data can also be misleading when viewed in isolation.
Tracked exchange reserves reportedly declined by around 12,153 BTC between Sept. 17 and Sept. 23.
Sept. 22 alone saw approximately 19,105 BTC in outflows.
Large exchange withdrawals are often interpreted as bullish because coins leaving trading venues may be moving into longer-term storage.
However, exchange balances do not show every transaction taking place in the market.
Exchanges can move funds internally between wallets and custodians.
Bitcoin can also be sold without first appearing as an obvious deposit to a publicly tracked exchange wallet.
Exchange reserves therefore provide useful context but are not a complete measure of selling pressure.
Miners remain another source of Bitcoin supply
Bitcoin miners continuously receive newly issued BTC but also face substantial operating costs.
Electricity, equipment, financing and payroll can force miners to sell part of their holdings regularly.
Some mining companies hold Bitcoin for longer periods, while others sell more consistently.
A decline in miner reserves can therefore indicate distribution.
However, miner flows alone cannot explain the full apparent-demand contraction.
The 170,000 BTC figure reflects broader holding behavior rather than a direct measurement of miner selling.
Strategy continues buying Bitcoin
Corporate treasury buyers remain another visible source of demand.
Strategy recently disclosed the purchase of another 1,665 BTC.
That raised its total Bitcoin holdings to approximately 847,666 BTC.
Strategy’s purchase is significant for the company’s own treasury, but it is relatively small compared with the 170,000 BTC change measured across CryptoQuant’s 30-day demand indicator.
Corporate purchases also cannot identify the buyer of every Bitcoin sold by long-term holders or miners.
They represent another piece of the broader demand picture.
Bitcoin’s rally was not driven entirely by spot buying
Derivatives also played an important role in Bitcoin’s September rally.
Futures open interest increased as Bitcoin moved higher.
Previous market reporting described more than $2 billion in newly opened futures positions alongside roughly $1.7 billion in ETF inflows over two days.
Futures can increase price momentum without necessarily removing Bitcoin from the liquid spot supply.
A futures contract creates price exposure between a long and a short position.
No physical Bitcoin necessarily needs to change hands.
This is why a rally driven partly by derivatives may look strong in price terms while longer-term spot accumulation remains less convincing.
Leverage can amplify both rallies and pullbacks
Derivatives are still important because leveraged positioning can influence the spot market indirectly.
When short positions are forced to close during a rally, buying pressure can push futures prices higher and affect spot-market arbitrage.
The reverse can happen when leveraged longs close during a decline.
If too much of a rally depends on leverage rather than long-term spot accumulation, the market can become more sensitive to sudden position unwinds.
CryptoQuant has also reported slower growth in speculative futures demand during the previous 15 days.
That does not guarantee a reversal, but it suggests another source of marginal momentum has cooled.
Bitcoin’s pullback shows why the Bull Score is not a buy signal
Bitcoin climbed above $87,000 before retreating toward the low $83,000 range.
That pullback occurred even while the Bull Score remained exceptionally strong.
This illustrates why a score of 90 should not be interpreted as a direct trading signal.
The score describes the prevailing bullish market structure.
It does not guarantee that every short-term move will be higher.
Bitcoin could resume its advance if new buyers return aggressively.
It could also consolidate or correct if profit taking exceeds incoming demand.
Bitcoin is still coming off a very strong quarter
Despite the recent demand concerns, Bitcoin’s broader performance remains strong.
The cryptocurrency was on track for its best quarter in nearly two years after gaining more than 40% from July through late September.
That performance supports the strong trend indicators behind CryptoQuant’s Bull Score.
The important question is whether the next leg of the rally can attract enough new demand to absorb sellers without relying increasingly on leverage.
The apparent-demand weakness may partly reflect timing
There is also a bullish interpretation of the conflicting data.
CryptoQuant’s apparent-demand measure covers a rolling 30-day period.
That window includes days before the latest wave of ETF buying accelerated.
As weaker days gradually leave the calculation, continued ETF inflows and accumulation by large investors could eventually push the demand measure higher.
If that happens while Bitcoin holds above its recent breakout levels, the 170,000 BTC contraction may prove to have been a lagging indicator of an earlier weak period rather than evidence of a lasting demand shortage.
What would strengthen Bitcoin’s bullish case?
Several developments could help confirm that demand is catching up with the strong trend.
First, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs would need to maintain meaningful net inflows rather than simply remain positive at much smaller levels.
Second, CryptoQuant’s apparent-demand measure would need to improve consistently over multiple updates.
Third, long-term holder profit taking would need to be absorbed without forcing Bitcoin significantly lower.
If those conditions occur while leverage remains controlled, the rally would have a stronger foundation based on identifiable spot demand.
What could weaken the setup?
The bearish case would become stronger if ETF inflows fade while long-term holders continue increasing sales.
A large increase in leveraged futures positions without comparable spot buying could also make the market more vulnerable to liquidation-driven volatility.
A sustained decline in Bitcoin price combined with worsening apparent demand would provide stronger evidence that new buyers are failing to absorb available supply.
At the moment, the market has not provided a definitive answer.
So where did Bitcoin demand go?
Demand did not disappear.
ETF investors bought aggressively during the latest breakout.
Strategy continued adding Bitcoin.
Other wallet groups have also accumulated.
At the same time, long-term holders have been realizing profits, derivatives have contributed to price momentum and CryptoQuant’s broader 30-day apparent-demand estimate has weakened.
The result is a market where visible buying exists, but sustained net absorption has not yet caught up with the strength of the trend indicators.
That is why Bitcoin can simultaneously show a Bull Score of 90 and deteriorating apparent demand.
The Bull Score says the market trend is strong.
The demand data asks whether enough new buyers are arriving to keep that trend going.
Those are two different questions.
What Bitcoin traders should watch next
The next few data updates should provide a clearer picture.
The most important indicator will be whether CryptoQuant’s 30-day apparent-demand estimate begins recovering from its roughly 170,000 BTC contraction.
ETF flows will also matter, especially whether investors maintain meaningful inflows after the excitement surrounding the breakout fades.
Long-term holder profit taking should be watched alongside Bitcoin’s price reaction.
If holders continue realizing gains while BTC remains stable or rises, that would suggest buyers are successfully absorbing the supply.
Futures positioning will provide another clue.
A renewed move toward the $87,400 area supported by ETF and spot demand would look different from one driven mainly by rapidly expanding leveraged positions.
For now, Bitcoin’s strong Bull Score confirms that the market has built significant upward momentum.
Whether that momentum can continue will depend less on the score itself and more on whether new demand returns strongly enough to absorb the coins being distributed.
