Bitcoin price slipped around 2% on Aug. 11, briefly falling below $64,000 as rising oil prices and uncertainty ahead of the latest U.S. inflation report weakened risk appetite.
BTC dropped to around $63,780 before recovering above $64,000, but buyers are still struggling to regain control above the $65,000 level.
The short-term outlook now depends heavily on whether Bitcoin can hold the $63,900–$64,000 support zone. A breakdown could expose lower levels near $63,200 and $62,000, while a recovery above $65,500 could reopen the path toward stronger resistance.
Summary
- Bitcoin price fell around 2% and briefly traded below $64,000.
- The $63,900–$64,000 area remains the key short-term support zone.
- Daily RSI is neutral near 50.31.
- BTC remains below its 100-day and 200-day moving averages.
- Liquidation clusters sit near $63,700 on the downside and $65,600 on the upside.
- U.S. CPI data could provide the next major volatility trigger.
Bitcoin price drops below $64,000
Bitcoin fell below the $64,000 level during the latest session before recovering part of its losses.
BTC traded as low as approximately $63,852 on Binance before rebounding toward $64,281.
The recovery reduced the intraday decline, but Bitcoin remained below the $65,000 level that buyers had attempted to establish as support over the previous few sessions.
The pullback came as broader risk sentiment weakened.
Concerns over U.S.-Iran negotiations and the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude above $89 per barrel, raising fresh worries about energy prices and inflation.
Higher oil prices can increase transportation and production costs, potentially making it more difficult for inflation to fall.
That uncertainty encouraged traders to reduce exposure to risk assets ahead of the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index report.
Rising oil prices add pressure to crypto markets
Bitcoin was not the only major cryptocurrency affected.
Ether, XRP and several other large-cap crypto assets also declined as traders moved into a more defensive position.
Oil prices became an important part of the market narrative because higher energy costs can complicate the Federal Reserve’s inflation outlook.
If inflation remains elevated, expectations for aggressive interest-rate cuts may weaken.
Higher interest rates generally reduce the appeal of speculative assets because investors can earn more attractive returns from lower-risk alternatives.
Cryptocurrencies often react quickly to changes in these expectations.
For Bitcoin, the combination of weaker risk sentiment and technical resistance above $65,000 created additional short-term selling pressure.
Bitcoin ETF outflows weaken institutional support
Institutional demand also provided less support during the decline.
U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded approximately $144.6 million in net outflows on Aug. 10.
The outflow ended a five-session streak of positive ETF flows.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs can act as an important source of demand because they allow institutional and traditional investors to gain exposure to BTC through regulated financial products.
When flows turn negative, one source of buying pressure temporarily weakens.
The timing of the outflow was notable because it arrived just as macroeconomic uncertainty was increasing.
If ETF demand remains soft while risk sentiment deteriorates, Bitcoin could face greater difficulty breaking through resistance.
Bitcoin remains trapped in consolidation
The daily chart shows Bitcoin continuing to trade inside a broad consolidation range.
Since the June decline, BTC has repeatedly attracted buyers around $60,000–$63,000.
However, attempts to establish a sustained recovery above $65,000 have repeatedly failed.
This leaves Bitcoin caught between meaningful support below and heavy resistance overhead.
At the time of the original analysis, BTC was trading slightly above its 20-day simple moving average near $64,219.
It was also above the 50-day SMA near $63,392.
Holding these two levels would keep the short-term recovery structure relatively intact.
A clean break below them, however, could shift momentum more clearly toward sellers.
Long-term moving averages remain bearish
While Bitcoin still holds some shorter-term support, the wider technical picture remains weaker.
BTC continues to trade below its 100-day SMA near $67,628 and its 200-day SMA around $69,918.
Both moving averages are also trending lower.
This creates a broad resistance zone between roughly $67,600 and $70,000.
Bitcoin would need to reclaim this region before the longer-term chart begins showing a more convincing bullish reversal.
For now, rallies into the upper-$60,000 range may continue to face significant selling pressure.
Bitcoin RSI remains neutral
The daily Relative Strength Index stood near 50.31.
Its signal line was close by at approximately 50.10.
An RSI reading near 50 suggests that neither buyers nor sellers currently have a strong momentum advantage.
This supports the view that Bitcoin remains in consolidation rather than trending decisively in either direction.
The neutral reading also means the market has room to move sharply if a major catalyst appears.
The upcoming U.S. inflation report could provide exactly that kind of catalyst.
$63,900 becomes the key Bitcoin support
The four-hour chart places immediate support around $63,900–$64,000.
Bitcoin briefly traded below this area during the sell-off before recovering, suggesting buyers were still willing to defend the level.
Trader Lennaert Snyder identified $63,900 as an important short-term pivot because it represents the midpoint of the previous weekly candle.
Holding above this level could keep the possibility of another move toward the previous weekly high alive.
If buyers successfully defend the support zone, attention could return to $65,500.
That level rejected Bitcoin during its latest recovery attempt and remains one of the strongest nearby resistance areas.
What happens if Bitcoin loses $63,900?
A breakdown below $63,900 would weaken the short-term structure.
The next important level would be around $63,200, which marked a recent low.
Losing both levels could push Bitcoin toward $62,000.
Below that, the broader demand region between approximately $57,500 and $60,000 would become increasingly relevant.
A daily close below the 50-day moving average around $63,392 would also strengthen the bearish scenario.
The key issue for buyers is therefore not simply whether Bitcoin briefly dips below $64,000, but whether it can quickly reclaim and hold the region.
Bitcoin Supertrend turns bearish
Short-term momentum indicators have already weakened.
The four-hour Supertrend has flipped bearish, placing resistance around $65,210.
Bitcoin also slipped below the indicator’s former support near $64,344.
For the short-term trend to improve, BTC would likely need to recover both levels.
Until then, moves toward $65,000 may continue to attract sellers.
Bull-bear power also dropped to approximately -612, showing that sellers had regained short-term control.
However, the reading was not as extreme as levels seen during the stronger June sell-offs.
That suggests bearish pressure has increased, but the market is not yet showing signs of full capitulation.
Traders identify $64,000 as the main pivot
Daan Crypto Trades also highlighted the $64,000 region as an important level.
Bitcoin had closed slightly below its four-hour 200-period moving averages before beginning to stabilize.
This reinforces the importance of the current area.
If BTC can reclaim $64,000 and build support above it, the recent decline may remain part of the broader consolidation structure.
If the level continues to fail, the market could increasingly target lower liquidity areas.
Bitcoin liquidation map highlights $63,700
The one-week liquidation heatmap shows significant leveraged positions on both sides of Bitcoin’s current price.
The nearest downside liquidity cluster is concentrated between approximately $63,600 and $63,800.
Bitcoin already tested this region during the latest decline but did not sustain a breakdown.
Another concentration of liquidity sits around $63,200–$63,400.
If Bitcoin drops below $63,700, forced liquidations of leveraged long positions could accelerate the move toward the lower cluster.
This type of liquidation-driven selling can create rapid price movements even when the broader market trend has not changed significantly.
Upside liquidity builds around $65,600
The strongest nearby upside liquidation zone appears between approximately $65,500 and $65,700.
If Bitcoin recovers above $65,000, short positions in this area could begin to come under pressure.
Forced short liquidations could then add buying pressure and accelerate a move toward the previous weekly high.
Additional liquidity appears around $66,200 and $67,000.
However, Bitcoin would first need to break decisively above the $65,500 region before those levels become realistic short-term targets.
The positioning of liquidation clusters on both sides of price suggests volatility could increase quickly once Bitcoin breaks out of its current narrow range.
U.S. CPI could trigger the next Bitcoin move
The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index report is likely to play a major role in Bitcoin’s next move.
The CPI data will influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy decisions.
A cooler-than-expected inflation reading could reduce pressure on Treasury yields and improve risk appetite.
Under that scenario, Bitcoin could recover $65,000 and challenge the $65,500–$65,700 resistance zone.
A sustained move above that area could then expose the 100-day moving average near $67,628.
Hot inflation could push BTC toward $62,000
The opposite scenario could create additional downside risk.
If inflation comes in hotter than expected, investors may reduce expectations for interest-rate cuts.
That could strengthen the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields while pressuring cryptocurrencies.
A confirmed loss of $63,900 under those conditions could push Bitcoin toward $63,200 and $62,000.
If selling pressure intensifies beyond that point, the psychological $60,000 support level could return to focus.
The reaction to CPI may therefore determine which of Bitcoin’s nearby liquidity zones is tested first.
Regulatory uncertainty remains in the background
U.S. crypto regulation also remains a secondary factor for traders.
The procedural vote connected with the CLARITY Act has been delayed until Sept. 15.
That removed a near-term policy catalyst that some investors had expected before the Senate recess.
Although macroeconomic conditions currently appear more important for Bitcoin’s immediate price action, regulatory developments could still affect sentiment over the coming weeks.
Bitcoin price outlook
Bitcoin remains range-bound rather than decisively bearish.
The $63,900–$64,000 zone is currently the most important short-term support.
As long as buyers defend that area, BTC could recover toward $65,000 and challenge the major liquidity zone near $65,600.
A breakout above $65,500 would improve the short-term structure and could open a move toward $67,000.
On the downside, losing $63,900 would increase the risk of a decline toward $63,200 and $62,000.
A deeper breakdown could eventually bring the $60,000 region back into focus.
For now, the market remains balanced between support and resistance, with the upcoming U.S. CPI report likely to determine the next major move.
Disclosure: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
