Bitcoin may be entering the final stretch of its current bull market, with the peak potentially just a few months away, according to crypto market analyst Rekt Capital.
In a recent analysis, Rekt Capital drew parallels between the current market cycle and those following Bitcoin’s previous halving events. Historically, Bitcoin has tended to top out roughly 518 to 550 days after each halving a pattern observed in both the 2016 and 2020 cycles.
Based on this timeline, he estimates that the market is already about 88% through its typical post-halving phase, suggesting that if history repeats, the next major price peak could arrive sometime between late September and mid-October 2025.
Don’t Move the Goalposts
While some investors are holding out hope that this cycle might extend into 2026, Rekt Capital urged caution. “The danger here is if we’re going to keep moving the goalpost, at some point we’re going to miss that bull market top,” he warned.
One unique characteristic of the current cycle, he noted, has been Bitcoin’s unusually long reaccumulation period following the April 2024 halving. For nearly eight months, BTC traded sideways in a consolidation phase—a stark contrast to more explosive moves seen in previous cycles.
This period of stagnation, Rekt Capital explained, was likely necessary to cool off the market after a strong pre-halving rally, helping bring the current cycle back in line with historical trends.
Eyes on the Final Phase
Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating just below its all-time high, echoing similar pauses in momentum that occurred at this stage during both the 2017 and 2021 cycles. According to Rekt Capital, these brief periods of “price discovery corrections” often serve as the calm before the storm, giving way to renewed surges in the final leg of the bull market.
However, he cautioned that as the cycle matures, the balance of risk and reward begins to shift. While there’s still room for potential gains, the size of those gains may be smaller relative to the growing downside risk of a significant market correction. Previous cycle tops were followed by steep declines of 60–70%, making prudent risk management essential.
Bonus Time, Not Guaranteed Time
Rekt Capital also addressed the notion that this cycle might stretch out longer than expected. Although past cycles have occasionally run slightly longer sometimes by about a month he warned against banking on an extended timeline as a certainty.
Instead, he advised investors to treat any period beyond the usual historical window as “bonus time” rather than an assured opportunity for more upside. “The focus now,” he said, “should be on preparing for that historical window, protecting gains, and avoiding getting swept up in new narratives that lack historical precedent.”
At press time, Bitcoin was trading a little above $108,840, continuing its steady climb over the past week.
