Shares of MicroStrategy (now operating under the name Strategy) remain deep in bear market territory but technical signals suggest a potential rebound may be forming.
The MicroStrategy Incorporated stock was trading near $138 on February 10, sharply down from its all-time high of $542. Its market capitalization has fallen from over $133 billion at peak levels to roughly $39 billion.
The decline mirrors the broader pullback in Bitcoin, which has dropped from its all-time high of $126,300 to around $69,000.
Yet beneath the surface, signs of a technical bottom are beginning to emerge.
Technical Analysis: Is MSTR Ready to Rebound?
On the weekly chart, MSTR appears deeply oversold.
Key signals include:
- Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping to 27 its lowest level since June 2022
- Price stabilizing near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level
- Narrowing spread between the two lines of the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO), signaling a potential bullish crossover
The last time RSI reached similar levels, the stock staged an extraordinary rally surging more than 2,700%, climbing from roughly $20 to $542.
If a rebound begins here, the next upside targets include:
- $216 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level)
- $232, a former support zone from March and April last year
While no indicator guarantees a rally, the confluence of oversold readings and Fibonacci support strengthens the case for a technical bounce.
Michael Saylor: “We Will Not Be Selling”
While price action remains volatile, founder and chairman Michael Saylor has made his position clear.
Strategy will not sell its Bitcoin.
In fact, Saylor doubled down on the company’s long-term accumulation strategy, stating:
“We have two-and-a-half years’ worth of dividends in cash, our net leverage ratio is investment grade. We will not be selling. Instead, I believe we will be buying Bitcoin every quarter forever.”
That’s a bold commitment especially in the middle of a crypto downturn.
Strategy’s Bitcoin Holdings Continue to Grow
Despite market pressure, Strategy purchased 1,142 BTC last week, bringing total holdings to 714,644 Bitcoin.
At current prices, those holdings are valued at over $49 billion.
However, the company remains underwater on its position, with an average cost basis of approximately $76,052 per Bitcoin.
Still, Strategy maintains:
- Over $2.4 billion in cash reserves
- Sufficient liquidity to cover dividends and debt maturities
- An investment-grade net leverage ratio
Saylor’s conviction remains unchanged he expects Bitcoin to recover as it has in previous bear cycles and believes it will ultimately outperform traditional assets such as gold and equities.
The Bigger Picture
MSTR remains closely tied to Bitcoin’s price action. As long as BTC remains volatile, the stock is likely to mirror that instability often in amplified form.
However, technical indicators suggest the stock may be nearing a potential bottom.
Whether this becomes a sustainable rebound or simply a temporary relief rally will largely depend on:
- Bitcoin’s next major move
- Broader market risk sentiment
- Continued institutional accumulation
For now, MSTR sits at a critical crossroads deeply oversold, technically compressed, and backed by a CEO who remains fully committed to Bitcoin accumulation.
