Bitcoin has climbed back above a key resistance level after several days of heavy selling, but new data suggests that institutional pressure from U.S. investors is still weighing on the market.
According to analyst Darkfost, the Coinbase Premium Index which compares Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase to Binance—remains negative. Since Coinbase is used heavily by U.S. institutions and professional traders, a negative premium indicates these investors are selling more aggressively than retail traders, who primarily trade on Binance.
Much of this sustained selling is being linked to ongoing outflows from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs, which have continued throughout the month.
Institutional Selling Is Slowing But Not Gone
Institutional sell pressure peaked around November 21, when the Coinbase Premium Index plunged sharply. During that period, professional investors were exiting Bitcoin at a faster pace than retail traders, contributing to a drop toward recent multi-week lows.
While the index is still negative, the intensity has eased. Darkfost notes that although the metric hasn’t flipped positive yet, its gradual improvement signals that institutional selling may be cooling though not fully reversing.
Technical Picture: A Bounce, But Is It Sustainable?
Bitcoin has found support at the 200-day moving average on the three-day chart, a level that has historically acted as a strong cushion during corrections. The recent rebound pushed the price back toward a local resistance zone.
However, short-term indicators remain weak:
- Bitcoin trades below both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, which are trending downward.
- Selling volume during the correction exceeded buying volume during the rebound, showing sellers were in control.
- The market is still digesting a sharp correction from Bitcoin’s October all-time high.
These factors leave traders unsure whether this bounce represents a temporary relief rally or the start of a more meaningful recovery.
With institutional activity still leaning bearish and ETF outflows ongoing, analysts warn the market may remain sensitive to further downside pressures.
