Hyperliquid’s HYPE token is under mounting pressure as it approaches a major supply event the unlocking of more than $350 million worth of tokens for early insiders. The timing coincides with weakening price momentum and a multi-month downtrend that continues to tighten.
At the time of writing, HYPE trades at $35.24, down 1.7% on the day and roughly 27% lower over the past month. The token has now fallen 41% from its September peak of $59.
Trading activity reflects the same cautious tone. Spot volume slipped 36% to $271 million over the last 24 hours, while futures activity also cooled. On CoinGlass, futures volume dropped nearly 30% to $1.12 billion, and open interest dipped 5% to $1.43 billion signs that traders are pulling back rather than positioning ahead of the unlock.
$351M Unlock Puts Short-Term Pressure on HYPE
According to Tokenomist, 9.92 million HYPE tokens, worth approximately $351.5 million, will unlock on November 29. This represents 2.66% of circulating supply and includes allocations for early insiders and core contributors whose tokens were locked for a year after the Token Generation Event in November 2024.
Hyperliquid recently unstaked 2.6 million HYPE, which some traders believe may be preparation for increased liquidity needs during the unlock. The team has not confirmed this.
To date, only 37% of HYPE’s total supply has been unlocked.
The upcoming unlock significantly outweighs Hyperliquid’s typical token buyback activity. The platform’s Assistance Fund has been one of the most active purchasers this year, using trading fees to buy back more than $600 million worth of HYPE. Daily buybacks typically range between $2 million and $5 million far too small to offset a one-time release of this magnitude.
Technical Analysis: Descending Channel Dominates
HYPE’s price structure has been locked inside a descending channel since August. Each rebound has formed a lower high, while dips have produced lower lows—confirming a controlled but persistent downtrend.
The token is now consolidating near a key mid-channel support zone between $33 and $35, a level that has repeatedly held but is weakening with every retest. A decisive daily close below this range could open the door to the next support band at $28–30.
Momentum indicators echo the bearish picture. The RSI has spent most of the past three months below the midpoint, forming its own sequence of lower highs. Each attempt to push into neutral territory has faded quickly.
What Could Happen Next?
Bullish case:
If support at $33–35 holds and the $351M unlock is absorbed more smoothly than expected, traders may attempt a rebound toward the upper boundary of the descending channel.
Bearish case:
A soft market combined with a large supply injection breaks support, sending HYPE into the $28–30 region before any meaningful base forms.
Hyperliquid’s near-term trajectory will depend largely on how the market handles tomorrow’s unlock and whether buyers step in or continue retreating.
