Bitcoin is beginning to show signs of fatigue even as it holds above the key $100,000 psychological level. A new report from market maker Wintermute, published on Nov. 13, highlights a subtle but important shift in how BTC is behaving relative to the Nasdaq-100 and it’s raising concerns about short-term market weakness.
Bitcoin Feels the Pain But Not the Gains
According to Wintermute, Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq remains very high, around 0.8, meaning the two assets still move closely together. But the nature of that relationship has changed.
- When the Nasdaq drops, Bitcoin tends to fall harder.
- When the Nasdaq rallies, Bitcoin barely responds.
This imbalance known as negative performance skew last appeared during the 2022 bear market, a period marked by heavy capitulation and investor stress. Rather than showing confidence at the top of a rally, this pattern usually signals exhaustion as market participants become more sensitive to downside pressure.
Why Bitcoin Is Reacting Bearishly
Wintermute points to two major drivers behind this behavior:
- Capital Rotation into Tech Stocks
Both retail and institutional investors have shifted attention toward mega-cap tech companies, pulling liquidity away from crypto. - Weakening Crypto Market Liquidity
- Decline in stablecoin issuance
- Softer ETF inflows
- Reduced market depth on exchanges
With less liquidity to absorb selling pressure, negative moves in the Nasdaq are amplified when transferred into Bitcoin.
Even so, Bitcoin has held up better than previous cycles. It’s still less than 20% below its all-time high, suggesting long-term confidence remains solid despite short-term fatigue.
Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
Bitcoin is trading around $103,615, with moderate buying pressure but mixed momentum indicators.
- Positioning: Trading below the midline of its Bollinger Bands → indicates cautious sentiment.
- Moving Averages: Slight bearish tilt.
- RSI: Near 43, showing neutral momentum.
- MACD: Bearish, showing continued selling pressure.
- Momentum (10): Flashing a buy signal → suggests potential for a short bounce.
Key Levels
- Resistance:
- $107,000 → aligned with the 20-day SMA
- A breakout could push BTC toward $110,000
- Support:
- $100,000 psychological level
- Stronger support near $98,000 (lower Bollinger Band)
A decisive close above $107,000 could revive bullish sentiment, but losing the $100,000 mark may trigger a deeper correction.
