Matrixport analysts caution that Bitcoin’s recent recovery to $105,000 may face resistance as institutional inflows remain weak and technical indicators suggest a short-term pullback could be looming.
Rebound Faces a Reality Check
After a sharp rebound above $105,000, Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be stabilizing but not without warning signs.
In its latest note, Matrixport said the sustainability of the rally “still remains to be tested,” citing ETF outflows and low institutional participation as potential headwinds for further gains.
According to the firm, Bitcoin’s recovery has been fueled by short-term catalysts such as optimism surrounding the potential end of the U.S. government shutdown and renewed stimulus speculatiobut those factors alone may not be enough to sustain momentum.
Institutional Outflows Undercut the Rally
Data from SoSoValue shows that all 12 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded combined outflows of $558.44 million last week the second-largest single-day withdrawal since launch.
This came just a day after the ETFs broke a six-day outflow streak with minor inflows, only to reverse again as traders booked profits.
Matrixport notes that this signals institutional hesitation, with large investors still stepping back from adding exposure even as prices rise.
“Market-cap recovery may be limited as ETF outflows suggest institutional capital is stepping aside,” the report stated.
“These catalysts alone may not be sufficient to drive a sustained reversal.”
Macro Catalysts Offer Temporary Support
Two macro events have provided a short-term lift to sentiment:
- Government Shutdown Progress: The U.S. Senate advanced a funding bill that could reopen the government until January 30, a development that President Donald Trump described as being “very close” to resolution.
- Trump’s $2,000 Tariff Dividend Proposal: His proposal to issue stimulus-style payments reminiscent of the 2020 checks has also helped boost retail enthusiasm in risk assets, including crypto.
However, Matrixport warns that while these events can fuel temporary optimism, they may not alter the underlying institutional demand deficit in the near term.
Technical Picture: Momentum Strong, But Cooling Expected
At press time, Bitcoin trades around $106,085, up 4.24% over the past 24 hours, recovering from last week’s dip below $100,000.
Despite the rebound, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 73.7 places BTC in overbought territory, suggesting a likely pause or minor correction before any sustained breakout.
The 30-day moving average near $103,651 has turned upward, hinting that short-term sentiment remains bullish, though consolidation around this level is probable before another major move.
- Resistance Zone: $106,500–$107,000 where selling pressure previously intensified.
- Upside Target: $110,000–$112,000 if bulls break resistance convincingly.
- Support Range: $103,500 with a deeper fallback zone near $101,500 if selling resumes.
Overall, Matrixport maintains a “cautiously bullish” stance expecting tactical buying on dips, but warning that ETF outflows and weak institutional inflows could limit upside in the near term.
