Aptos (APT) was trading at $4.80 at press time, down about 0.6% in the last 24 hours but still up 13% over the past week. The move caps off a steady rebound from early August lows, but all eyes are now on a $54 million token unlock set for August 11 an event that could sway short-term price action.
📊 Steady Positioning in Derivatives
In the past day, Aptos saw $473.7 million in trading volume, up 2%. Coinglass data shows open interest in APT futures rose 0.71% to $368.56 million, while derivatives volume dipped 3.5% to $345.95 million.
This pattern rising open interest alongside lower turnover often signals that traders are holding their positions longer, reflecting conviction rather than quick in-and-out trading.
💰 $54M Unlock Could Test Market Strength
On August 11, 11.31 million APT (worth about $54 million) will be released into circulation roughly 2.2% of the total circulating supply. Historically, token unlocks can put downward pressure on prices, especially if recipients decide to cash out.
The question is whether the market can absorb this new supply without breaking key support levels. APT’s fundamentals may help: the network has been expanding in DeFi and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization. In July, it launched the Decibel Trading Protocol on Devnet to improve on-chain trading efficiency.
Its RWA segment now boasts over $720 million in total value locked, attracting major issuers like BlackRock and Franklin Templeton. The recent passage of the GENIUS Act is also expected to drive further growth in the sector.
📈 Technical Picture
Since August 5, Aptos has been forming higher lows, keeping its short-term trend bullish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 54.56 a neutral zone with room for movement in either direction. Shorter moving averages (10, 20, 30, 50 periods) remain in buy territory, supporting the near-term uptrend.
However, the longer-term structure is still fragile, with the 100- and 200-day averages in sell territory. Momentum indicators such as MACD and 10-day momentum show light buying pressure, while the Stochastic RSI signals overbought conditions hinting at a possible pullback.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Resistance: $4.85 – $5.00. A break above $5.00 could flip longer-term averages into neutral or bullish territory.
- Support: $4.65, then $4.50. If these fail, $4.35 is the next deeper support.
🎯 Bottom Line
Aptos has enjoyed a solid week, but the upcoming $54M unlock could be the real test for bulls. If demand holds and key supports stay intact, APT could make a run at $5.00. If selling pressure from the unlock builds, however, the market may be in for a sharper correction.
