Bitcoin is struggling to hold momentum after its recent pullback, slipping to $111,038 at press time. While the price is still up about 0.9% in the past 24 hours, it remains down 2.4% over the past week and nearly 10% below its all-time high of $124,128 set on August 14.
Trading Activity Cools Off
The market slowdown is clear in both spot and derivatives trading. 24-hour spot volume dropped 33% to $38.7 billion, while futures volume slid even harder, down 40.7% to $81.5 billion, according to Coinglass. Open interest also edged lower to $81.3 billion. This cooling activity suggests weaker speculative demand and tighter price swings in the short term.
On-Chain Data: New Investors Capitulate
On-chain metrics show that the sell-off is being driven mostly by newer investors rather than long-term holders. A CryptoQuant analysis from Aug. 27 found that wallets holding Bitcoin for less than a month are sitting on average unrealized losses of -3.5%, pushing many to exit.
By contrast, 1–6 month holders are still in profit (+4.5%) and show little sign of selling pressure. This dynamic points to a healthy reset, with coins moving from weaker hands to stronger ones often seen as constructive for Bitcoin’s long-term foundation.
Persistent Selling Pressure
Still, concerns remain. Another CryptoQuant analyst highlighted that Bitcoin’s 30-day moving average of the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio has fallen to its lowest level since May 2018. Readings below 0.98 suggest strong sell pressure, and the current value is even weaker than levels seen during the November 2021 peak. That divergence hints at fading buy-side momentum, making BTC vulnerable to further near-term dips.
Technical Picture: Mixed but Leaning Bearish
Technical signals paint a cautious outlook:
- RSI at 41 is close to oversold, hinting at possible short-term relief.
- The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is flashing a buy signal, suggesting some stabilization.
- However, the MACD and momentum indicators remain bearish.
- BTC is trading below its 10-, 20-, 30-, and 50-day SMAs/EMAs, reinforcing a short-term downtrend.
On the brighter side, Bitcoin continues to respect long-term support at the 100- and 200-day EMAs ($111K and $103K). Holding these levels keeps the bigger bullish structure intact.
Key Levels to Watch
If buyers step in at the $110K–$111K range, a relief rally could push BTC back toward $115K–$117K resistance. But if that support breaks, the next downside targets are $107K–$108K, with stronger support sitting at $103K near the 200-day EMA.
Bitcoin’s pullback is shaking out short-term traders, but long-term holders remain steady. With RSI near oversold and strong support nearby, the coming days could decide whether BTC stabilizes above $110K or risks another leg lower.
