As more public companies turn to Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset, VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research, Matthew Sigel, is sounding the alarm on a new risk emerging from this aggressive accumulation strategy. In a detailed post on X (formerly Twitter), Sigel urged Bitcoin-holding companies to adopt stricter capital discipline as their share prices approach net asset value (NAV), warning that unchecked stock issuance could harm rather than help shareholders.
Understanding Bitcoin NAV and Its Impact
NAV represents the total value of a company’s Bitcoin holdings divided by the number of outstanding shares. When a company’s stock trades above NAV, issuing new shares to buy more Bitcoin can increase shareholder value—an accretive move. However, once a stock trades at or near its NAV, that dynamic shifts. Additional issuance risks diluting shareholder exposure to Bitcoin without providing proportional benefit.
“No public Bitcoin treasury company has traded below its Bitcoin NAV for a sustained period,” Sigel noted. “But at least one is now approaching parity.”
Sigel’s Prescriptions for Protecting Shareholder Value
To avoid diluting shareholder equity, Sigel proposed a set of proactive measures, including:
- Halting ATM Programs Below NAV: Companies should pause at-the-market share issuance if the stock trades below 0.95x NAV for 10 consecutive trading days.
- Implementing Buybacks: Firms should consider stock buybacks when Bitcoin rises but the share price lags, helping close the NAV gap.
- Strategic Reviews: A persistent discount to NAV should prompt companies to reevaluate their strategy.
- Aligning Executive Compensation: Sigel emphasized that management incentives should be tied to increasing NAV per share, not simply growing Bitcoin holdings or expanding the share count.
“Once you are trading at NAV, shareholder dilution is no longer strategic. It is extractive,” Sigel wrote, reinforcing the need for a value-centric approach over asset accumulation.
Bitcoin Treasuries on the Rise
The comments come as Bitcoin treasury strategies gain momentum across corporate America. According to a June 2025 report by Standard Chartered, 61 public companies now collectively hold 673,897 BTC approximately 3.2% of Bitcoin’s total supply. Among them, 58 trade above their NAV, a metric known as mNAV.
An mNAV greater than 1.0 suggests investors are paying a premium for Bitcoin exposure through equity, while a value below 1.0 signals undervaluation relative to Bitcoin reserves.
Strategy Leads, Sentiment Diverges
Strategy remains the dominant corporate Bitcoin holder, boasting over 582,000 BTC and an mNAV of 1.91 as of June 2025. The firm recently added 74,000 BTC within just two months, financed in part by a $250 million preferred stock issuance.
At the other end of the spectrum are Semler Scientific and Trump Media & Technology Group, with mNAV values showing discounts of -10% and -16%, respectively reflecting weaker investor sentiment.
As more firms seek to leverage Bitcoin as a financial strategy, Sigel’s warnings highlight a critical inflection point. The era of easy gains through Bitcoin-linked share issuance may be waning. Going forward, companies will need to focus less on raw accumulation and more on capital efficiency, shareholder alignment, and maintaining investor trust.
“Bitcoin treasuries are not just about stacking sats anymore. They’re about protecting per-share value,” Sigel concluded.
