XRP is sliding deeper into a loss-driven phase as both on-chain data and price structure point to growing stop-loss activity rather than fresh accumulation. Selling pressure has intensified across spot and derivatives markets, pushing XRP into territory not seen since the last major drawdown cycle.
At the time of writing, XRP was trading near $1.44, down about 1% on the day. Losses have piled up quickly, with the token down roughly 10% over the past week, 30% over the last month, and more than 40% year over year. Since peaking near $3.65 in July 2025, XRP has shed close to 60% of its value.
Trading activity rises as price weakens
Despite the continued decline, market activity has increased. Spot trading volume jumped 22% in the past 24 hours to around $3.45 billion, suggesting active repositioning rather than a quiet selloff.
Derivatives data shows a more cautious tone. According to CoinGlass, XRP futures volume rose 12% to $5.66 billion, while open interest edged slightly lower by 0.17% to $2.50 billion. That combination typically indicates traders are closing positions instead of adding new leverage, consistent with risk reduction rather than speculative buildup.
On-chain data confirms stop-loss driven selling
On-chain signals suggest the current downturn is being driven primarily by holders selling at a loss, not by large-scale whale distribution. In a Feb. 9 post, Glassnode noted that XRP has fallen below the aggregate cost basis of its holders, pushing the market into what it described as a “stop-loss phase.”
The firm highlighted that the 7-day exponential moving average of the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has dropped to 0.96, down from 1.16 during the July 2025 rally. This marks the first sustained move below 1.0 since 2022. When SOPR falls under 1.0, it signals that coins are being sold at a loss on average, a hallmark of capitulation-like behavior among smaller holders.
Glassnode compared the current setup to the September 2021 to May 2022 period, when XRP spent several months consolidating after SOPR flipped negative.
Whales remain largely on the sidelines
Additional data from CryptoQuant reinforces the idea that large holders are not driving the selloff. Analyst PelinayPA noted that whale-to-exchange flows remain near historical lows, even as XRP trades in the $1.42–$1.45 range.
During the July 2025 peak, whale deposits surged as price topped out. That pattern has not repeated so far. Instead, recent selling appears to be dominated by smaller holders exiting positions, while larger players wait for either lower prices or renewed upside momentum before distributing.
Historically, this type of structure has often resulted in sideways or slightly lower price action, punctuated by brief rallies that eventually attract whale selling.
XRP technical structure still favors downside
From a technical standpoint, XRP’s daily chart continues to form lower highs, keeping the broader bearish bias intact. Both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages have turned downward and are now acting as overhead resistance, capping recovery attempts.
Price has also been pushed toward the lower Bollinger Band after failing multiple times to hold above the mid-band. This suggests volatility is resolving to the downside rather than building a stable trading range.
Momentum remains weak. There is no confirmed bullish divergence, and the daily relative strength index remains below the neutral 50 level. Volume behavior supports this view, showing steady selling on down days without a sharp capitulation spike, consistent with ongoing stop-loss activity rather than panic.
The $1.45–$1.50 zone, once a strong support area, is now being retested with noticeably weaker buyer response. Reclaim attempts have been quickly rejected, highlighting persistent overhead supply.
If selling pressure continues, XRP could drift toward the $1.35–$1.30 support zone, where buyers previously stepped in during late 2024. A daily close below $1.30 would increase the likelihood of a deeper move toward $1.20, an area associated with longer-term demand in past cycles.
