XRP is holding just above a key psychological support level near $2, but technical signals suggest the token could be vulnerable to a sharper move as several high-impact macro and policy events approach.
At the time of writing, XRP was trading at $2.08, down roughly 43% from its all-time high. The pullback mirrors the broader weakness across the cryptocurrency market, where risk appetite has cooled following months of elevated volatility.
A warning sign on the weekly chart
On the weekly timeframe, XRP has printed a dragonfly doji candlestick, a pattern that often appears near market turning points. While it can sometimes signal a bounce, in broader downtrends it frequently precedes further downside — especially when follow-through buying fails to materialize.
The appearance of this pattern suggests hesitation among buyers just as sellers remain active, leaving the price exposed if sentiment worsens.
Macro data adds pressure
Market participants are also watching key macroeconomic data this week. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release December Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, a report that often influences both equity and crypto markets.
Recent data shows headline CPI holding at 2.6%, while core inflation eased from 2.7% to 2.6%. Falling oil prices and lower mortgage rates point to easing inflation pressures, but a hotter-than-expected CPI reading would likely weigh on risk assets — including XRP.
Regulation back in focus
Another major catalyst for XRP is the upcoming Senate markup of the CLARITY Act, legislation aimed at clarifying how cryptocurrencies are regulated in the United States. The bill seeks to clearly divide oversight responsibilities between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Any progress — or further delay — could influence sentiment across the crypto market, particularly for tokens like XRP that sit at the center of long-running regulatory debates.
Earnings season adds another variable
Traditional markets may also play a role. U.S. earnings season begins this week, with major financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, JPMorgan, and BlackRock reporting results. Strong earnings could lift equities and spill over into crypto markets, while weak results may reinforce a risk-off tone.
XRP technical outlook
From a technical perspective, warning signs are building. XRP has already formed a double-top pattern near $3.40, with a neckline around $1.62 — a level that previously acted as support in April last year.
The token has also slipped below both the 50-week and 100-week weighted moving averages, reinforcing the broader bearish structure.
If selling pressure continues, the most likely downside target sits near $1.62. A decisive break below that level could open the door to further losses, with $1.50 emerging as the next key support zone.
For now, XRP remains in a fragile position, caught between critical technical levels and a calendar packed with macroeconomic and regulatory catalysts.
