Bitcoin started the week on a strong note, rising for a second straight day on Monday, September 29, as traders positioned themselves for a busy stretch of U.S. political and economic developments. The cryptocurrency climbed to around $114,000, well above last week’s dip to $108,450, and is now up 55% from its lows earlier this year.
What’s Driving the Market?
Three big themes are likely to shape Bitcoin’s direction in the coming days:
1. U.S. Government Shutdown Risks
Congress faces a Monday deadline to agree on a spending bill. If lawmakers fail to reach a deal, the U.S. government will partially shut down, halting services like national parks and IRS operations while forcing about 40% of federal workers to stay home. The longer the shutdown lasts, the bigger the hit to economic output — and the greater the pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider interest-rate cuts.
2. Labor Market Data
This Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report is another key focus. Economists expect the jobs market to remain soft, weighed down by recent tariff tensions. A weak reading could boost Bitcoin, since it might strengthen the case for Fed rate cuts before the year ends. However, if the shutdown drags on, the Bureau of Labor Statistics may not be able to publish the report.
3. Trump’s Tariff Threats
Trade policy is also back in the spotlight. Donald Trump has threatened sweeping tariffs, including on foreign-made movies, furniture, and imported pharmaceutical drugs. Such uncertainty in traditional markets has often benefited Bitcoin as investors look for alternative assets.
Technical Picture: Signs of Strength
From a charting perspective, Bitcoin appears to be setting up for further gains. The daily chart shows a double-bottom pattern near $108,236 a classic bullish reversal signal. The coin has also broken above a key pivot at $112,500, staying above the 100-day EMA and the middle of the Bollinger Bands.
Currently trading inside the Ichimoku Cloud, Bitcoin looks poised to test the next upside target around $118,750. However, analysts caution that a drop back below $108,236 would undermine the bullish outlook.
The Bottom Line
Bitcoin is entering a pivotal week, with politics, jobs data, and trade headlines all capable of swinging sentiment. For now, momentum is on the side of the bulls but the market remains highly sensitive to Washington’s next move.
