MicroStrategy (MSTR) shares took a heavy beating on Monday, extending a months-long selloff and flashing one of the most worrying chart signals for traders: a death cross. The pattern, formed when the 50-day moving average slides below the 200-day, often signals the potential for deeper losses ahead.
MSTR has already sunk to $323 per share, its lowest level since April, and now trades nearly 40% below its 2023 high. That performance sharply lags Bitcoin itself, which despite recent volatility remains only about 7% off its year-to-date peak.
Technicals Paint a Bleak Picture
From a technical perspective, MSTR is on fragile ground. The stock recently broke below a key support level around $360, a price floor that had held since May. Now that floor looks more like a ceiling, trapping the stock in a bearish channel.
Momentum indicators aren’t offering much relief either. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sliding toward the oversold zone near 30, while the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) keeps drifting lower. Together, these signals suggest sellers remain firmly in control.
With this setup, the next meaningful level to watch is around $230 per share the lows seen back in March. That target implies another 30% slide from current prices if bearish momentum holds.
NAV Concerns and Dilution Risks
Beyond the charts, fundamentals aren’t helping the case. MicroStrategy’s modified net asset value (mNAV) a measure of how much of a premium or discount investors assign to its Bitcoin holdings has collapsed to 1.25. That’s a steep fall from last year’s 3.4, and it undercuts one of the company’s long-standing capital-raising rules.
For years, founder Michael Saylor pledged not to sell new shares if mNAV dipped below 2.5. That policy changed in August, opening the door to additional stock sales even at weaker valuations. Investors now fear further dilution, especially as the company leans heavily on at-the-market offerings to fund its Bitcoin strategy rather than turning to alternative financing like preferred shares.
A Wider Selloff in “Bitcoin Treasury” Stocks
MicroStrategy isn’t the only firm feeling the heat. Other companies tied closely to Bitcoin reserves including Metaplanet, Trump Media, Bullish, KindlyMD, and Semler Scientific have also seen their shares tumble in recent months. The demand for so-called “Bitcoin treasury” stocks appears to be drying up as enthusiasm cools and volatility returns.
Bottom Line
For now, the outlook for MSTR remains bearish. Technicals point to more downside, dilution fears are weighing on sentiment, and the broader class of Bitcoin treasury stocks is underperforming. Unless Bitcoin itself stages a strong recovery, MSTR could be staring down a move toward the $230 mark in the weeks ahead.
