Bitcoin’s meteoric rise over the past 16 years has rewritten the rules of asset investing. With a valuation now sitting at $2.1 trillion, Bitcoin has become the fifth-largest asset globally, trailing only gold, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Apple. Its performance over the last five years surging over 1,000% has far outpaced traditional indices like the Dow Jones (up 70%) and the Nasdaq 100 (up 122%).
However, one stock has quietly outperformed them all: Strategy. Originally a software company, Strategy pivoted in 2020 to become a Bitcoin-centric firm. This transformation has propelled its stock nearly 3,000% higher, growing its market capitalization from $1 billion to $101 billion.
Three Ways to Invest in Bitcoin Today
Investors looking to capitalize on Bitcoin’s upside have several options:
- Direct Ownership: Buying Bitcoin and storing it on exchanges or in self-custody wallets offers the purest exposure to price movements.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs: These regulated funds now hold over $131 billion in Bitcoin, providing easy access with a small management fee.
- Strategy Stock: With more than 580,250 BTC on its balance sheet, Strategy acts as a leveraged play on Bitcoin, offering exposure through the public equity market.
Understanding the Strategy Model
What makes Strategy unique is its NAV premium its shares often trade at a value significantly above the underlying worth of its Bitcoin holdings. As Bitcoin rises, this premium magnifies returns for Strategy shareholders.
This setup allows Strategy to raise capital at high share prices, using the proceeds to accumulate even more Bitcoin. As the company’s BTC holdings increase, so does its Bitcoin-per-share value creating a flywheel effect that fuels further growth.
However, this model isn’t without risks. Strategy’s plan to raise $84 billion through share issuance has triggered concerns about dilution, especially with the stock currently down over 12% from its 2025 peak even as Bitcoin trades near all-time highs.
Forecasting the Future: $700K or $2.4M Bitcoin?
Market giants are betting big on Bitcoin’s long-term potential. BlackRock has projected a price target of $700,000, while Ark Invest sees an even more ambitious target of $2.4 million. At $700K, Bitcoin would boast a $13.9 trillion market cap more than 6.5x its current value.
If Strategy holds 576,230 BTC at that point, the value of its holdings would be approximately $403.36 billion. Using the historical 1.58x NAV premium, the company’s market cap could balloon to over $637 billion suggesting Strategy stock may outperform Bitcoin itself in terms of relative returns.
Bitcoin vs Strategy: Which Should You Buy?
For investors seeking direct, decentralized exposure with no counterparty risk, Bitcoin remains the gold standard. But for those looking to potentially outperform Bitcoin while remaining in the regulated equities space, Strategy stock offers an attractive, albeit riskier, alternative particularly if the NAV premium remains strong.
Ultimately, both Bitcoin and Strategy offer powerful avenues for long-term growth. The better buy depends on your appetite for risk, belief in Bitcoin’s future, and comfort with equity dilution dynamics.
