Toncoin (TON) has extended its losing streak, falling to a crucial support level as concerns about its ecosystem and network growth mount. The cryptocurrency dropped to $2.90 on Thursday, marking a staggering 65% decline from its 2024 peak. This marks the sixth consecutive week of losses, bringing Toncoin to its lowest price since March 11.
Ecosystem Struggles and Weak On-Chain Metrics
The downturn in Toncoin’s price comes amid widespread weakness in its ecosystem. Many tokens built on the TON Blockchain, including tap-to-earn tokens like Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) and Catizen (CATI), have plunged more than 80% from their all-time highs. Additionally, Tapswap, a project that once boasted over 70 million users, has seen its market cap plummet to just $2.90 million following its airdrop.
Network statistics further highlight the blockchain’s struggles. The number of daily transactions has dropped sharply to 2.215 million, down from a peak of 20 million just months ago. Similarly, monthly active wallets have declined from 5.2 million in February to 2.8 million, signaling waning user interest and engagement.
The total value locked (TVL) in the TON ecosystem has also suffered a dramatic drop, plummeting from over $1 billion in 2024 to just $153 million. Meanwhile, weekly transaction volume within the TON decentralized exchange (DEX) ecosystem has fallen to $68 million, making it smaller than networks like Aptos (APT) and the newly launched Unichain.
Technical Analysis: More Losses Ahead?
From a technical perspective, Toncoin’s price has been in a clear downtrend since peaking at $8.2440 in June last year. The coin recently broke below the critical $4.550 support level, which had previously acted as a key floor in April, September, and November of 2023.
Currently, TON is testing the $2.9155 support level, which corresponds to its December 2022 high. Additionally, it has dropped below the 50-week moving average, while the Stochastic Oscillator has entered the oversold zone, indicating heightened bearish momentum.
The Average Directional Index (ADX) has climbed to 27, suggesting that the bearish trend is strengthening. Given these conditions, Toncoin could face further declines, with the next downside target being the psychological level of $2.00—approximately 35% lower than its current price.
Market Outlook
With its ecosystem showing signs of distress and technical indicators pointing to further downside, Toncoin’s immediate outlook remains bearish. Investors and traders will be closely watching whether the $2.9155 support holds or if a deeper correction toward $2.00 is imminent.
