Toncoin has experienced a 45% price surge from its lowest level this month, driven partly by Pavel Durov’s departure from France and the broader recovery in the crypto market. However, despite this rally, on-chain metrics and technical indicators suggest that the price increase may be temporary.
Toncoin Rallies as Pavel Durov Leaves France
Toncoin (TON) jumped to a high of $3.6240 on Saturday, marking its highest level since February 24. This rally pushed its market capitalization to over $8.4 billion.
The surge followed news that French authorities returned Durov’s passport, allowing him to leave the country after months of legal restrictions. Durov, arrested in 2024, faced allegations related to complicity in managing an online platform facilitating illicit transactions, including drug trafficking and money laundering.
Despite the relief rally, there are concerns that Toncoin’s price increase may not be sustainable.
Weak On-Chain Metrics Raise Concerns
Toncoin’s recent surge comes amid declining on-chain activity. Data from TonStat highlights several troubling trends:
- TON inflation has increased from 0.33% in October to 0.40%.
- Total supply has surged to over 5.124 billion TON.
- Daily transactions have plummeted from 20 million in September 2023 to just 2.15 million.
- Active wallets on the TON Blockchain have declined.
- Total Value Locked (TVL) in Toncoin’s DeFi ecosystem has dropped from $800 million to $180 million.
TON’s biggest decentralized exchange (DEX), STON.fi, currently handles only $7.1 million in daily trading volume, reflecting low adoption in Toncoin’s DeFi sector.
Additionally, several tokens on the TON Blockchain, including Hamster Kombat, Catizen, and Tapswap, have suffered massive losses, wiping out billions in value.
Profit-Taking Could Trigger a Price Drop
Historically, crypto traders often sell off assets following major news events. The “buy the rumor, sell the news” phenomenon has played out in multiple instances, including Cardano’s price spike after being included in President Trump’s portfolio, only to see double-digit losses shortly after.
Given these historical patterns, there is a strong possibility that Toncoin’s rally could fade as profit-taking intensifies.
Technical Analysis: Resistance at Key Levels
From a technical perspective, the Toncoin price chart suggests that the rally is facing resistance:
- Toncoin bounced from its monthly low of $2.3650, reaching $3.50, which aligns with the 50-day moving average.
- The Murrey Math Lines indicate that Toncoin has hit a key resistance zone.
- If Toncoin fails to break above $3.50, a move below $3 is likely as traders react to fading momentum.
While Toncoin’s price surge following Durov’s departure has been impressive, on-chain weaknesses, declining DeFi activity, and technical resistance levels suggest that this rally may be short-lived. Unless strong fundamental improvements emerge, Toncoin’s price could dip below $3 as traders sell into the news and market momentum fades.
