Bitcoin’s prolonged downtrend may be approaching its end as selling pressure from large holders on Binance appears to be easing, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost. The decline in Binance’s BTC whale ratio, a key on-chain metric, suggests that big holders are slowing their sell orders, potentially signaling an impending market recovery.
Whale Selling Pressure Declines
In a March 12 post on X, Darkfost pointed out that Binance’s BTC whale ratio—measuring the top 10 inflows relative to total inflows—has been trending downward. A high ratio typically indicates strong selling activity from whales, often triggering market corrections. The current decline in this metric suggests that major holders may be reducing their sell-offs, which has historically been a precursor to Bitcoin price rebounds.
Given Binance’s dominant market volume, analyzing its whale activity provides valuable insights into potential market movements. The decreasing whale ratio aligns with growing accumulation trends, hinting at a shift in sentiment among large investors.
Whales Accumulate 65,000 BTC Despite Market Decline
Despite Bitcoin’s sharp 30% decline from its January all-time high, on-chain data indicates that large investors have been steadily accumulating BTC. According to CryptoQuant, whales have purchased nearly 65,000 BTC in the past 30 days, reinforcing the view that the current price range presents a strategic buying opportunity for institutional investors.
External Factors Influencing Market Sentiment
Macroeconomic concerns and external market developments have also played a role in Bitcoin’s recent price action. The U.S. government’s announcement of a strategic Bitcoin reserve initially sparked optimism, but it was later revealed that these holdings would come from seized assets rather than direct purchases. This shift in perception has contributed to investor uncertainty.
Additionally, record outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and global economic factors—such as potential tariffs—have further pressured the market. Traditional stock market performance, particularly the NASDAQ, continues to exert a strong influence on Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Bottom at $70,000
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes shared his market outlook on March 11, suggesting that Bitcoin could bottom around $70,000, marking a 36% drop from its peak, before initiating its next rally. However, Hayes emphasized that a sustainable recovery would require broader financial market shifts beyond the crypto industry alone.
Bitcoin’s Road to Recovery?
As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at $83,234, showing signs of stabilizing. If the trend of whale accumulation and decreasing selling pressure continues, the market could be poised for a recovery. Investors will be closely monitoring on-chain data and macroeconomic developments to gauge Bitcoin’s next move in the coming weeks.
