Bitcoin has faced a relentless seven-week decline, falling from its all-time high of $109,000 in January to a March 11 low of approximately $77,000. This 30% drop has rippled across the broader cryptocurrency market, triggering significant losses in major altcoins. Over the past month, Ethereum (ETH) has dropped 29%, while Solana (SOL) and Dogecoin (DOGE) have fallen 40% and 38%, respectively.
Profit-Taking and Exchange Inflows Drive Selling Pressure
According to a March 11 report by Santiment, Bitcoin’s decline began when major stakeholders started taking profits in mid-February, leading to a wave of sell-offs. Between February 20 and March 8, approximately 22,702 BTC (~$1.8 billion) were moved from private wallets to exchanges, indicating that investors were preparing to sell, further intensifying downward pressure on prices.
At the same time, whale accumulation slowed significantly after former U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration. Institutional buyers who had aggressively purchased Bitcoin between November and January began reducing their exposure in February. While some of these large investors resumed buying on March 3, their efforts have yet to trigger a significant rebound.
Shifting Investor Sentiment and Retail Sell-Offs
Investor sentiment has also turned increasingly bearish. Social media data reflects a surge in negative Bitcoin price projections, with many retail investors who entered the market late in 2024 selling at a loss. Santiment’s study found that the average short-term loss for Bitcoin traders is -11%, while long-term holders have suffered a -5% decline over the past 12 months.
Macroeconomic Concerns Adding to Volatility
Beyond internal market factors, macroeconomic uncertainty has also played a role in Bitcoin’s struggles. Trump’s new tariff policies and concerns over a potential escalation in trade wars have created additional volatility in the crypto market. Although his administration’s pro-crypto stance initially fueled optimism, growing doubts over how quickly regulatory policies can be implemented have dampened expectations.
Bitcoin Price Outlook and Key Support Levels
Bitcoin is currently trading at around $77,200 as of March 11, down 4% from the previous day. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has suggested that Bitcoin could fall to $70,000, marking a 36% correction from its peak—a level consistent with past bull market retracements.
Hayes further speculated that monetary easing by global central banks, including the Federal Reserve, PBOC, ECB, and BOJ, would likely follow if major stock indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experience further declines.
While some risk-averse investors may wait for central bank intervention to stabilize markets, Hayes recommends traders consider buying the dip. However, if the $78,000 support level fails to hold, he previously predicted that Bitcoin could test $75,000 in the short term.
With uncertainty surrounding macroeconomic policies, institutional participation, and retail sentiment, Bitcoin’s next move remains highly unpredictable. Traders will be closely watching key support levels and broader market trends to gauge whether the current downturn is just a correction or the beginning of a prolonged bear phase.
