Solana has recovered to $143 after a sharp 28% decline, gaining 4% in the past day. However, concerns persist as FTX continues transferring SOL to Binance, raising questions about whether this rebound can be sustained.
Market Volatility and Profit-Taking
Solana’s recent crash followed a wave of profit-taking after the initial enthusiasm surrounding President Trump’s U.S. Crypto Strategic Reserve announcement on March 2. SOL surged to $179 before plummeting to $130 when Trump confirmed that tariffs on Canada and Mexico would take effect on March 4. This shift in macroeconomic sentiment triggered broad market uncertainty, leading to sharp corrections across the crypto space.
Despite the volatility, Solana’s decentralized exchange (DEX) sector remains a stronghold. Data from DeFiLlama shows that Solana has led DEX trading volume for the fifth consecutive month, reaching $109 billion in transactions—24% higher than Ethereum’s volume. Even though memecoin trading has slowed, platforms like Raydium, Meteora, and Orca continue to drive significant activity.
Technical Analysis: Resistance and Support Levels
From a technical standpoint, Solana faces resistance at the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA), signaling continued bearish momentum. Key resistance levels are set at $150.05, $166.32, and $179.01, while support is holding at $136. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 39.65, just above the oversold territory, indicating a potential for short-term recovery if momentum shifts upward.
Although trading activity has increased, the broader trend remains downward. A break above $150 could pave the way for a push toward $166, but failure to maintain current support could see further declines.
FTX’s Continued SOL Transfers to Binance
Adding to market uncertainty, FTX’s bankruptcy estate appears to be preparing to liquidate significant amounts of Solana. On March 4, on-chain analytics firm Lookonchain identified an FTX-linked address that unstaked 3.03 million SOL (worth approximately $431.3 million). Of this amount, 24,799 SOL ($3.38 million) was transferred to Binance, potentially signaling a larger sell-off.
The selling continued on March 5, with another 58,964 SOL ($8.52 million) deposited to Binance. The ongoing liquidation from FTX’s estate adds downward pressure on Solana’s price, making traders cautious about the asset’s near-term stability.
Outlook: Can Solana Hold Its Gains?
Solana’s ability to sustain its recovery hinges on market sentiment, technical resilience, and whether FTX’s sales trigger further bearish momentum. While the DEX sector remains strong and technical indicators suggest a potential rebound, continued sell-offs from FTX and macroeconomic uncertainty could limit upside potential.
Traders will be closely monitoring the $150 resistance level—if SOL breaks above, it could push toward $166. However, failure to hold support at $136 could result in another leg downward, especially if FTX continues its liquidations.
With ongoing developments, investors are keeping a close eye on Solana’s price action, hoping for stability amid uncertain market conditions.
