XRP, the digital asset created in 2012 by the developers behind financial technology company Ripple, has remained one of the top cryptocurrencies in the market. Currently ranked as the third most valuable cryptocurrency, trailing only Bitcoin and Ethereum, XRP has seen renewed investor interest following recent regulatory and institutional developments.
A Bullish Outlook on XRP
Former Goldman Sachs analyst Dom Kwok recently suggested that XRP has a “high chance” of surpassing Ethereum’s market capitalization. As of February 21, 2025, XRP holds a market value of $154 billion, compared to Ethereum’s $338 billion. Kwok’s prediction implies that XRP would need to surge by at least 120%, pushing its price significantly higher.
Several catalysts could fuel such a dramatic rise in XRP’s valuation. Among them, two stand out as particularly promising: a potential dismissal of the ongoing SEC lawsuit against Ripple and the approval of spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
SEC Lawsuit Against Ripple Could Be Dismissed
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a lawsuit against Ripple in December 2020, alleging that the company raised over $1.3 billion by selling XRP as an unregistered security. The case saw a pivotal ruling in July 2023 when Federal Judge Analisa Torres determined that while Ripple’s direct sales to institutional investors violated securities laws, its indirect sales via digital exchanges did not. The ruling resulted in a much lower-than-expected fine of $125 million for Ripple, a fraction of the SEC’s requested $2 billion penalty.
The SEC has since appealed the decision, but recent regulatory shifts suggest the case may be dismissed altogether. Former SEC Chair Gary Gensler resigned in January 2025, and his departure was followed by the formation of a cryptocurrency task force aimed at developing clear and practical regulations for the industry.
The agency’s past approach of retroactively enforcing crypto regulations has drawn criticism, leading to confusion and a stifling effect on innovation. The SEC’s new direction, combined with President Donald Trump’s executive order to strengthen U.S. leadership in digital financial technologies, has created a more favorable climate for cryptocurrency firms. Given this shift, there is a strong possibility that the SEC will drop its lawsuit against Ripple in the coming months.
Market reactions to previous rulings in the case indicate how XRP might respond to such news. In July 2023, following Ripple’s partial legal victory, XRP surged 69% within 24 hours. If the lawsuit is dismissed entirely, XRP could see a similar or even greater increase in value.
Spot XRP ETFs Could Drive Institutional and Retail Demand
Another major factor that could push XRP’s price higher is the approval of spot XRP ETFs. Several asset managers have already filed applications with the SEC to launch these investment vehicles, and the agency has a deadline of mid-October 2025 to make a decision.
Spot ETFs allow investors to gain exposure to an asset without directly purchasing it. Instead of going through expensive cryptocurrency exchanges, investors could buy XRP ETFs through their existing brokerage accounts, significantly lowering the barrier to entry.
A similar scenario has already played out with Bitcoin. In January 2024, the SEC approved spot Bitcoin ETFs, which subsequently led to a surge of over 100% in Bitcoin’s value over the following year. If the SEC greenlights spot XRP ETFs, it could trigger a wave of institutional and retail investments, further fueling XRP’s growth.
Brazil recently approved the world’s first spot XRP ETF, which sets a precedent that may encourage the U.S. SEC to follow suit. If that happens, XRP could easily double in value within a short timeframe.
What’s Next for XRP?
Between the potential dismissal of the SEC lawsuit and the growing likelihood of spot XRP ETF approvals, XRP is positioned for a significant upward trajectory. With a more favorable regulatory environment and increasing institutional interest, the digital asset could see substantial gains by the end of 2025.
For investors considering XRP, these upcoming catalysts provide a compelling case for potential long-term growth. However, as with any cryptocurrency investment, risks remain, and market conditions can change rapidly. While the outlook for XRP is promising, investors should conduct thorough research and consider their risk tolerance before making investment decisions.
