Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, has publicly acknowledged he was wrong about the end of the Bitcoin bull cycle, following BTC’s unexpected return to six-figure territory.
“I Was Wrong”: Ju Walks Back March Prediction
In a post shared with his followers, Ju issued an apology for his March 2025 forecast, where he claimed that the Bitcoin bull market had ended and predicted a bearish or sideways trend over the next 6 to 12 months. That prediction has now been challenged by Bitcoin’s impressive rebound past $100,000 on May 8, sparked in part by renewed global optimism after President Trump announced a major trade deal with the U.K.
“I apologize for the incorrect prediction. I will strive to provide higher-quality analyses in the future. Thank you,” wrote Ju.
Bitcoin’s Market Dynamics Have Shifted
Ju explained that his misjudgment stemmed from relying too heavily on outdated metrics. Historically, Bitcoin market cycles were dictated by profit-taking patterns typically led by whales selling at price peaks, triggering subsequent sell-offs. However, Ju now argues those models are losing relevance in today’s market.
“The Bitcoin market has become much more diverse. ETFs, MicroStrategy (MSTR), institutional investors, and even government agencies are considering buying and selling Bitcoin,” he noted.
He further emphasized that institutional liquidity inflows, particularly from ETFs and major corporate entities, now play a much larger role than whale-driven sell pressure. This diversification makes the traditional cyclical models less predictive.
Transition Over Trend
Despite Bitcoin’s bullish rally up over 3% in the last 24 hours, currently trading at $102,773 Ju stopped short of declaring a full-blown bull run.
“Of course, the recent price action is extremely bullish, but I’m talking about the profit-taking cycle,” he clarified, referring to long-term cyclical trends.
Ju described the current phase as a “transitional period” in Bitcoin’s market structure. While price action is strong, he notes that new liquidity is still gradually being absorbed, making it premature to label the market fully bullish.
Rethinking On-Chain Indicators
Although Ju walked back his earlier prediction, he reiterated his belief in the value of on-chain analytics but stressed the need for these tools to evolve. He hinted that CryptoQuant’s future models may prioritize institutional inflows and ETF data over older metrics like profit and loss indexes or long-term holder movements alone.
Back in March, Ju had cited cyclical patterns in Bitcoin’s historical profit/loss data going back to 2014. At the time, Bitcoin dipped as low as $74,500 following Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement, seemingly validating his call until the unexpected May rally reversed the trend.
Looking Ahead
Ju’s transparency in owning his misstep has been largely appreciated within the crypto community, as traders continue to navigate a rapidly evolving market.
The rise of institutional-grade products, government involvement, and macro-driven events like trade policies are now central to understanding Bitcoin’s future direction. As Ju himself notes, it’s no longer enough to watch whale wallets watching Wall Street may be more important than ever.
