Coinbase (COIN) stock has come under intense pressure in 2025, shedding over $38 billion in market value as the broader crypto market continues its downward spiral. After peaking at $350 per share in November, the stock has plunged to around $190, and technical indicators now suggest that a further 20% decline may be on the horizon.
Crypto Market Woes Weigh Heavily on Coinbase
The decline in Coinbase’s share price mirrors the broader trend across the cryptocurrency sector. Flagship assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum have suffered sharp losses:
- Bitcoin fell from a record high of $109,400 in January to $84,400 today.
- Ethereum tumbled from $4,100 to $2,000 in the same period.
- The total crypto market cap has declined from $3.8 trillion to $2.76 trillion in just a few months.
Coinbase’s performance remains tightly correlated with crypto prices. During bull markets, the exchange sees a surge in trading volume and user activity. In 2021, for example, its revenue soared to $7.3 billion, only to fall to $3.1 billion in 2022 as the market cooled.
Although 2024 marked a recovery—boosting revenue to $6.6 billion—the recent downturn threatens to reverse that momentum.
Diversification Efforts Offer Some Cushion
In response to crypto’s cyclical volatility, Coinbase has taken steps to diversify its revenue streams. In Q4 of 2024, transaction revenue reached $1.5 billion, while subscriptions and services revenue came in at $641 million. This growth is being fueled by:
- Stablecoin-related income
- Custodial and blockchain rewards fees
- Interest income and finance fees
The company has also invested heavily in Base, its Layer-2 blockchain network, which has quickly become an industry leader. Over the last 30 days, Base protocols processed $22 billion in volume, with $3.1 billion in total value locked (TVL).
Additionally, Coinbase is reportedly in advanced talks to acquire Deribit, a leading derivatives platform, in a deal valued between $4 billion and $5 billion. The acquisition could position Coinbase as a major player in the growing crypto derivatives market.
Technical Patterns Signal Trouble Ahead
Despite strong fundamentals and positive long-term projections, the technical outlook for COIN stock is bearish. The daily chart shows two key warning signs:
- Bearish Pennant Formation: The stock is consolidating within a pennant pattern, typically a continuation signal that can lead to a sharp breakdown.
- Impending Death Cross: A death cross—where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day average—is forming, a historically bearish signal that often precedes further downside.
If these patterns play out, analysts suggest COIN could fall to $150, a 20% drop from current levels.
Analyst Forecasts Remain Upbeat—For Now
Interestingly, Wall Street analysts remain optimistic. The consensus is that Coinbase’s annual revenue will grow by 23.7% to $8.12 billion this year and climb to $8.38 billion in 2026. Price targets for COIN stock remain bullish, with an average target of $318, significantly above the current price.
But as macro headwinds persist and technical signals flash red, traders and investors may need to brace for short-term volatility.
Founded in 2012 by Brian Armstrong and Fred Ehrsam, Coinbase has grown into one of the most important institutions in the crypto space. However, its stock is not immune to the sector’s volatility.
While Coinbase’s push into Layer-2 networks, subscriptions, and derivatives offers long-term promise, near-term risks remain high. With a death cross looming and bearish chart patterns developing, COIN could be in for a steep correction—despite bullish fundamentals.
Investors may want to tread cautiously in the weeks ahead.
