Speculation surrounding the SEC’s ongoing case against Ripple intensified on February 18, with many questioning whether the regulatory agency would withdraw its appeal. This appeal challenges the ruling on the Programmatic Sales of XRP, and its withdrawal could significantly impact XRP’s trajectory, possibly pushing it past its all-time high of $3.55.
The SEC’s approach to crypto enforcement is shifting, as seen in its recent decision to pause its case against Coinbase. Legal expert John Reed Stark noted that this could indicate a broader trend, stating that the SEC’s crypto-enforcement efforts are “officially expired.”
The SEC filed its appeal-related opening brief on January 15, just before Gary Gensler stepped down as SEC Chair. With the agency’s focus shifting, an appeal withdrawal could free up resources for other regulatory matters. Ripple must file its reply brief by April 16, providing a clear timeline for potential developments.
XRP Price Trends: Uncertainty Weighs, but a Breakout Is Possible
XRP’s price struggled on February 18, falling 3.75% to close at $2.5611. This drop followed Monday’s 2.52% loss, marking a continued downtrend. Unlike the broader crypto market, which only declined by 1.14%, XRP faced additional pressure due to lingering regulatory uncertainty.
Despite the recent slump, a potential SEC appeal withdrawal could be a game-changer. Analysts see three key price scenarios:
- Bullish: An appeal withdrawal could drive XRP beyond its all-time high of $3.5505.
- ETF Catalyst: Approval of a US XRP-spot ETF could push prices toward $5.
- Bearish: Continued legal uncertainty and regulatory setbacks may send XRP below $1.50.
Bitcoin Steadies at $95K Amid Market Uncertainty
Bitcoin (BTC) continued trading sideways on February 18, facing pressure from economic data and upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes. BTC briefly spiked to $96,782 before pulling back to a low of $93,431, eventually closing at $95,635.
A major factor impacting BTC is the evolving sentiment toward US interest rates. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index showed a rise from -12.6 in January to +5.7 in February, signaling a potential increase in inflationary pressures. If inflation concerns delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, BTC demand could be affected.
US BTC-Spot ETF Market: Weak Demand Raises Concerns
The US BTC-spot ETF market saw outflows of $129.1 million on February 18, continuing last week’s trend of $580.2 million in net outflows. Notably, Bitwise BTC ETF (BITB) reported $112.7 million in outflows, while Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) saw $16.4 million in withdrawals.
A key driver of future BTC price movement is the potential for a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR). Industry expert John E. Deaton emphasized that government accumulation of BTC could trigger “Nation State FOMO,” possibly accelerating BTC’s path to $1 million per coin.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: Key Catalysts to Watch
Investors are closely monitoring several factors that could influence BTC’s price trajectory:
- FOMC Meeting Minutes: Insights into inflation, labor markets, and monetary policy.
- US Tariff Policies: Economic impact and trade tensions.
- Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR): The US government’s stance on BTC accumulation.
Possible BTC Price Scenarios:
- Bearish: A hawkish Fed, increasing trade tensions, and resistance to a US SBR could push BTC toward $90,000.
- Bullish: A dovish Fed, easing trade tensions, and progress on an SBR could propel BTC toward its all-time high of $109,312.
Market Outlook: Regulatory Developments Remain Key
As institutional investors evaluate the evolving regulatory landscape, these factors remain critical:
- The SEC’s decision on its Ripple case appeal.
- Federal Reserve policy and inflation trends.
- US tariff policies and their macroeconomic impact.
- Institutional participation in the BTC-spot ETF market.
- Potential legislative progress on a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
The coming weeks will be pivotal for XRP and Bitcoin. A potential SEC appeal withdrawal in the Ripple case could be a bullish catalyst for XRP, while BTC’s direction depends on regulatory and macroeconomic factors. Investors should stay tuned for updates as the market reacts to these developments.
