Bitcoin investors are closely watching the $81,000 level, which analysts say is critical for avoiding further downside volatility ahead of next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The meeting, scheduled for March 19, will provide further insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy for 2025 and could impact Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Bitcoin’s price has dropped over 3% in the past week, currently trading around $83,748, according to Cointelegraph Markets Pro. Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, warns that Bitcoin faces potential downside pressure due to increasing global macroeconomic uncertainty, including trade tariffs.
Analyst Insights: Key Price Levels
Lee emphasized the importance of Bitcoin maintaining a weekly close above $81,000, stating:
“The key level to watch for the weekly close is $81,000 range. Holding above that would signal resilience, but if we see a drop below $76,000, it could invite more short-term selling pressure.”
Market expectations currently suggest a 98% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. However, Lee cautioned that any unexpected hawkish signals from the Fed could negatively impact Bitcoin and other risk assets.
“The market largely expects the Fed to hold rates steady, but any unexpected hawkish signals could put pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets,” said Lee.
Even a dovish surprise, such as an unexpected rate cut, may not necessarily provide an immediate bullish catalyst for Bitcoin, as investors remain cautious about broader macroeconomic conditions.
Bitcoin’s Bullish Scenario: Break Above $85K
Despite concerns about downside risks, some analysts see potential bullish catalysts. Enmanuel Cardozo, market analyst at Brickken, believes that a weekly close above $85,000 could restore investor confidence and lead to Bitcoin’s next breakout.
“Traders and investors alike are keeping a close eye on the $80,000 support and the $85,000–$90,000 resistance, with a break above the latter potentially sparking a strong upward movement.”
Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve Bill Could Drive Long-Term Optimism
Regulatory developments may also play a role in Bitcoin’s market sentiment. On March 14, U.S. Representative Byron Donalds introduced a bill aimed at ensuring Trump’s Bitcoin reserve plan becomes permanent. If passed, the bill would prevent future administrations from dismantling the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve through executive action.
The bill needs at least 60 votes in the Senate and a House majority to pass. Given the current Republican Senate majority and growing crypto-friendly sentiment in Washington, there is a realistic chance of the bill advancing.
Bitcoin is at a critical juncture, with key technical and macroeconomic factors influencing its next move. A weekly close above $81,000 is crucial for maintaining stability, while a break above $85,000 could trigger the next bullish leg.
As the FOMC meeting approaches, Bitcoin traders will be watching closely for any signals from the Federal Reserve that could impact the broader risk asset market. Additionally, ongoing regulatory developments, such as the Trump Bitcoin reserve proposal, may shape the long-term adoption and perception of Bitcoin in institutional and governmental circles.
