Bitcoin (BTC) has entered bear market territory in 2025 after dropping over 23% from its January highs, raising concerns across the crypto market. Despite the short-term pullback, analysts remain optimistic, pointing to historical patterns and on-chain fundamentals that suggest the long-term trajectory is still bullish.
Bitcoin Drops But Outperforms Nasdaq
On Good Friday, Bitcoin was trading around $84,555, up 13% from its yearly low, but still down 10% year-to-date. Comparatively, the Nasdaq 100 index has fallen by 13% in the same period, meaning Bitcoin has slightly outperformed tech stocks, even amid high market volatility.
The coin’s current market cap hovers above $1.68 trillion, maintaining its dominance in the broader crypto landscape.
Historical Trends Offer Hope
While the recent correction might feel sharp, Bitcoin has weathered deeper dips before. In 2022, it plunged from its all-time high of $68,980 in November 2021 to its lowest level amid rising interest rates and the collapse of major crypto players like FTX, Celsius, and Terra.
Similarly, last year, BTC dropped 35% between March and August before mounting a strong recovery. These cycles have built a resilient market outlook among investors who view pullbacks as healthy corrections in a broader uptrend.
On-Chain Signals Stay Strong
Despite the price drop, Bitcoin’s on-chain data continues to signal strength:
- Mining difficulty is at an all-time high, indicating greater network security and competition among miners.
- Exchange balances have decreased to 2.18 million BTC, down from 2.44 million in September 2024, signaling that investors are choosing to hold rather than sell.
These data points suggest growing confidence among long-term holders.
Gold’s Rally Could Lead Bitcoin’s Next Move
A notable development is the 25% surge in gold prices this year to new all-time highs. Some analysts believe Bitcoin tends to follow gold’s price action with a 100–150-day lag. As gold responds to inflation concerns and central bank policies, Bitcoin may be poised for a similar rally if historical correlations play out again.
“When the printer roars to life, gold sniffs it out first, then Bitcoin follows harder,” said analyst Joe Consorti on X.
Technical Analysis: Cup-and-Handle Signals Bullish Continuation
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains in a long-term uptrend. The weekly chart shows that BTC is consistently finding support at the 50-week EMA, a key trendline that has held strong since October 2023.
BTC also remains above the Ichimoku Cloud, typically a bullish indicator, and continues to hover above $73,685, the neckline of a textbook cup-and-handle formation.
The pattern suggests that, if the structure plays out, Bitcoin could rally to $123,585, representing an upside of about 45% from current levels. However, a sustained move below $73,685 would invalidate this bullish setup.
Final Thoughts
Although Bitcoin has entered bear market territory by definition, its fundamentals and technicals indicate that the current dip may be another consolidation phase in a broader bull cycle. As macroeconomic forces evolve and institutional interest continues to rise, Bitcoin may soon reclaim its upward momentum—potentially riding on the coattails of gold’s surge.
