Bitcoin has rebounded sharply in recent days, climbing to a high of $85,630 on April 15 — its strongest level in nearly two weeks. The move represents a 15.2% recovery from this month’s low, fueled in part by geopolitical and economic developments. Yet, technical indicators now suggest that the crypto market may be on the verge of another bearish phase.
Political Relief Sparks Short-Term Rally
The recent Bitcoin bounce coincides with the Trump administration’s softened approach to global tariffs. Initially imposing a broad set of trade restrictions, Trump later issued a 90-day pause on tariffs from over 70 countries. Over the weekend, further relief came in the form of exemptions for electronics and semiconductor products, coupled with pledges of support for automakers.
This policy shift boosted investor confidence, lifting risk-on assets such as equities and crypto. U.S. stock futures tied to the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100 all trended higher following the announcement. Speculation also emerged about the potential use of tariff revenue to strategically accumulate Bitcoin — a move that, while unconfirmed, added to the speculative momentum.
Death Cross Looms Over Bitcoin
Despite this short-term optimism, a looming technical indicator casts a shadow over Bitcoin’s bullish narrative. Analysts are closely watching the gap between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which has narrowed to just 472 points a signal that a “death cross” may be imminent.
A death cross occurs when the short-term 50-day moving average crosses below the long-term 200-day moving average, typically signaling a trend reversal and increased bearish momentum. If this crossover materializes, Bitcoin could retreat back toward $74,500 — approximately 13% below current levels.
However, if Bitcoin can break above both moving averages, it may invalidate the bearish signal and spark a move toward the key psychological resistance of $90,000.
Stock Market’s Death Cross Adds Pressure
The caution surrounding Bitcoin is further amplified by technical weakness in the broader financial markets. The S&P 500 index recently triggered a death cross of its own, historically a precursor to deeper pullbacks. In 2022, a similar signal led to a 17% drop in the index.
Given the strong correlation between Bitcoin and equities — both considered risk-on assets — bearish signals in the traditional markets may compound downside risk for BTC investors.
Gold Emerges as a Stronger Safe Haven
While Bitcoin flirts with bearish territory, gold continues to outperform. The precious metal has surged over 20% year-to-date, recently hitting an all-time high of $3,245. Goldman Sachs has revised its gold price forecast to $3,700, citing sustained demand from institutional and sovereign buyers.
Countries like India, Turkey, Russia, and China have significantly increased their gold reserves throughout 2024. Meanwhile, popular gold ETFs such as GLD and IAU are witnessing rising inflows, indicating heightened interest from both retail and institutional investors.
The Swiss franc has also seen strong appreciation, reaching its highest level in over a decade — another sign that global capital is shifting toward traditionally safe assets.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s recent recovery is encouraging for bulls, but technical and macro risks remain elevated. An impending death cross, weakening equities, and shifting investor sentiment toward gold and other safe havens could pressure BTC in the coming weeks.
Unless Bitcoin can break decisively above key resistance levels, the path of least resistance may still be downward especially in an environment where gold continues to shine as the ultimate flight-to-safety asset.
