As global markets reel from rising geopolitical tensions and recession fears, investors are fleeing riskier assets in favor of traditional safe havens. Leading the charge are the Swiss franc and gold, which have significantly outperformed both Bitcoin and U.S. bonds amid a turbulent economic landscape.
Swiss Franc Soars Amid Market Uncertainty
The Swiss franc has emerged as one of the best-performing currencies of 2024, with the USD/CHF exchange rate plunging to 0.8100 — a sharp 12% drop from its yearly high. This dramatic appreciation has been driven by Switzerland’s longstanding reputation for neutrality, political stability, and robust banking secrecy laws, reinforcing its appeal during times of crisis.
Unlike the U.S. dollar, which recently hit its lowest level since 2018, the franc has held firm thanks in part to the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) diversified portfolio. The SNB remains heavily invested in top-tier American companies such as Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet, and it is the tenth-largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds.
Gold Hits Record Highs, Cementing Haven Status
Gold has also reasserted its dominance as a reliable hedge, breaking records with a price surge to $3,240 per ounce. The precious metal has gained 24% in 2024 and a staggering 125% since its pandemic-era lows. With traditional equity markets like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 falling into double-digit losses, gold’s meteoric rise is a clear signal of investors’ flight to safety.
Bitcoin Lags Behind Traditional Havens
Although often dubbed “digital gold,” Bitcoin has struggled to keep pace with its physical counterpart. After reaching a year-to-date high of $109,300, BTC has slipped to $83,000 — a more than 20% decline. Despite its fixed supply of 21 million coins and growing Wall Street interest, Bitcoin has failed to serve as a consistent safe haven in the current macro environment.
In comparison, both gold and the Swiss franc have shown resilience and upside potential in response to global headwinds.
Bonds Under Pressure as Yields Climb
Meanwhile, U.S. bonds have not offered much refuge. On Friday, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.50%, while the 30-year and 2-year yields reached 4.85% and 3.97% respectively. These rising yields reflect investor unease over inflation, monetary tightening, and fiscal uncertainty.
Recession Fears Intensify
Economic outlooks continue to deteriorate. According to Polymarket data, there’s a 60% chance the U.S. will enter a recession in 2025. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink went further, claiming the recession is already underway. Mark Zandi of Moody’s shares this sentiment, citing escalating U.S.–China tariffs and a slowing domestic economy.
Major banks, including Morgan Stanley, UBS, and BNP Paribas, are warning of a significant GDP slowdown and rising unemployment, forecasting the jobless rate could rise to 5%.
As global financial markets remain on edge, investors are clearly gravitating toward time-tested havens. The Swiss franc and gold have not only protected wealth but also delivered strong returns, surpassing even Bitcoin in performance. With recession risks looming and bond yields climbing, the pivot to these safe assets may just be getting started.
