Despite a recent market correction, analysts maintain that Bitcoin’s historic four-year bull cycle remains intact. While investor sentiment has dropped into “Extreme Fear”, market experts suggest that this is merely a temporary shakeout rather than the start of a prolonged downturn.
Bitcoin Faces a 22% Decline from ATH
Bitcoin’s price has dropped 22% from its all-time high of over $109,000, which was recorded on Jan. 20, the day of U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration. According to Cointelegraph Markets Pro, the correction has led to speculation that the bull cycle might be ending prematurely.
However, analysts from Bitfinex argue that corrections within bull cycles are normal. They note that technical indicators have turned bearish, but historical trends suggest that the market is experiencing a shakeout—a temporary price drop triggered by investors exiting positions before a strong recovery.
ETFs and Institutional Adoption Changing the Market Structure
Bitcoin’s recent price movement comes amid growing institutional adoption and the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These ETFs temporarily surpassed $125 billion in cumulative holdings, leading some analysts to question whether the traditional four-year cycle still applies.
Bitcoin Stages a Rebound, Correlation with Equity Markets
A positive sign emerged on March 15, when Bitcoin staged a daily close above $84,000 for the first time in over a week, according to TradingView. However, analysts caution that Bitcoin’s price remains correlated with traditional financial markets.
Bitfinex analysts highlight that Bitcoin may only find a solid bottom when equity markets stabilize, particularly the S&P 500. They also identify $72,000–$73,000 as a crucial support range, but broader economic conditions—including global treasury yields and trade tensions—will play a key role in Bitcoin’s next major move.
Bitcoin Halving and Four-Year Cycle Still in Play
Despite concerns about a disrupted bull market, the Bitcoin halving event and four-year cycle remain fundamental to Bitcoin’s long-term price action. According to Iliya Kalchev, an analyst at Nexo, Bitcoin’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) has declined to a record low of 8%, raising questions about whether the cycle still holds.
However, Kalchev believes that institutional adoption has served as a strong tailwind for Bitcoin, while the halving event will continue to exert long-term influence. The April 2024 halving, which reduced Bitcoin’s block reward to 3.125 BTC per block, has already helped drive Bitcoin’s price up by 31% since the event.
While market fears persist, analysts remain optimistic that Bitcoin’s historic bull cycle is not over. Short-term volatility and macroeconomic factors may influence price swings, but long-term indicators, including the four-year cycle and institutional adoption, suggest further growth ahead. Investors will be closely watching the coming months to determine whether Bitcoin’s next parabolic rally is still on track.
