The cryptocurrency market saw a sharp pullback heading into the weekend, with Bitcoin (BTC) tumbling from highs of $89,000 to around $82,000 on Saturday. The sudden decline came as investor sentiment weakened, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index slipping further into the fear zone. Altcoins followed suit, and the global crypto market cap dropped to $2.73 trillion, according to CoinGecko.
As the market looks to stabilize, two key macroeconomic catalysts could shape the trajectory of Bitcoin and altcoin prices in the week ahead: Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls data.
1. Trump’s “Liberation Day” Tariffs
Markets are bracing for potential volatility on Tuesday, when former President Donald Trump is expected to announce a wave of reciprocal tariffs on America’s major trading partners. Dubbed “Liberation Day,” the policy aims to counter what Trump sees as unfair trade practices and non-tariff barriers imposed on U.S. goods.
The move has sparked concern among global economists. Reports suggest the European Union is considering making concessions, while China is preparing retaliatory measures. Analysts warn that these tariffs could:
- Raise costs for U.S. manufacturers
- Suppress consumer spending
- Disrupt global supply chains
- Increase the likelihood of a U.S. recession
In fact, a recent Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor poll showed that 62% of economists believe the U.S. economy will enter a recession in 2025.
For crypto markets, the impact could go either way. A deeper risk-off mood may push prices lower. However, if the market perceives the tariffs as already priced in, or if trading partners reach compromise deals with the U.S., we could see a rebound in Bitcoin and altcoins.
2. U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Data – Friday
The second major catalyst comes on Friday with the release of March U.S. nonfarm payrolls data. This report will offer fresh insight into the health of the American labor market.
According to a Reuters poll, economists expect:
- 128,000 new jobs in March (down from 151,000 in February)
- A rise in unemployment to 4.2%
The payrolls report is a critical input for the Federal Reserve, which is balancing inflation control with the need to avoid economic stagnation. If the jobs data comes in weaker than expected, it could raise expectations of a Fed rate cut later this year — particularly if Trump’s tariffs add pressure on the economy.
Such a scenario might be bullish for Bitcoin and risk assets, as lower interest rates typically improve liquidity and investor appetite for non-yielding assets like crypto.
Outlook
With heightened geopolitical tensions and critical economic data ahead, Bitcoin and altcoin prices are likely to remain volatile next week. While the market currently appears cautious, any policy surprises or deviations from expectations could swiftly shift sentiment.
Traders should keep a close eye on Tuesday’s tariff announcement and Friday’s employment data, both of which are likely to influence the next directional move for crypto markets.
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