XRP is once again testing one of its most important resistance levels after a strong recovery at the start of July. Renewed optimism surrounding Ripple’s latest developments and improving on-chain activity has helped the token climb back toward $1.07, a price zone that repeatedly stopped bullish momentum throughout June.
While buyers have regained confidence in the short term, the real challenge is only beginning. The $1.07–$1.09 range has acted as a stubborn ceiling for weeks, and another rejection could send XRP back toward key support levels.
XRP rebounds as Ripple’s latest plans boost sentiment
According to crypto.news data, XRP climbed nearly 5% on July 2, rising from around $1.03 to an intraday high close to $1.08 before losing momentum near resistance.
The rally followed Ripple’s announcement of its upcoming XRPL Lending Protocol, a lending solution designed for institutional users. Investors also welcomed Ripple’s monthly escrow release, where only 300 million XRP entered circulation while 700 million XRP remained locked.
Because only a small portion of Ripple’s holdings reached the market, concerns over token dilution eased, encouraging buyers to return.
Network activity strengthens
Price wasn’t the only positive signal.
On-chain data showed growing activity across the XRP Ledger. Daily active addresses surged by more than 72%, while new wallet creation reached its highest level in nearly three months.
At the same time, exchange balances continued to decline as more investors moved XRP into self-custody wallets instead of leaving tokens on exchanges. This typically reduces immediate selling pressure and reflects improving investor confidence.
Seasonal trends have also worked in XRP’s favor. Historically, July has been one of the cryptocurrency’s strongest-performing months, encouraging traders to rebuild long positions after a weak second quarter.
Bitcoin’s ability to remain above the $60,000 level has also helped capital flow back into large-cap altcoins, including XRP.
Long-term trend remains under pressure
Despite the recent recovery, XRP has yet to reverse its broader bearish trend.
The token continues to trade below every major moving average on the daily chart. The 20-day moving average sits around $1.11, followed by the 50-day at $1.21, the 100-day near $1.30, and the 200-day moving average around $1.49.
A descending trendline that has capped every rally since May also remains intact, suggesting sellers still control the larger trend.
In other words, short-term momentum has improved, but the overall technical picture hasn’t fully turned bullish.
Bulls target the critical $1.07-$1.09 resistance
The four-hour chart paints a more encouraging picture.
XRP has reclaimed recent support levels and is once again challenging the $1.07-$1.08 resistance area that rejected buyers multiple times during June.
However, another obstacle sits just above.
The Supertrend indicator remains bearish near $1.09, making this level the next major hurdle. If buyers can push above both resistance levels, XRP could quickly target $1.11, followed by $1.15 and eventually the 50-day moving average near $1.21.
Momentum indicators are also beginning to improve.
The four-hour Aroon Up indicator has surged to 100%, showing buyers currently have the upper hand over shorter timeframes, even though the daily trend remains weak.
Short squeeze could accelerate the rally
Derivatives data suggests the current resistance zone could become even more important.
CoinGlass liquidation data shows one of the largest clusters of short positions sitting between $1.08 and $1.10.
If XRP breaks above this area, traders betting against the market may be forced to close their positions, creating additional buying pressure that could accelerate the move higher.
On the downside, significant long liquidations remain concentrated around $1.03 and $1.02, making those levels important support if buyers fail to maintain momentum.
Crypto analyst ChartNerd believes a short-term recovery remains possible but cautions that the broader trend still favors sellers.
According to the analyst, XRP would likely need to reclaim roughly $1.35 before confirming a meaningful higher-timeframe bullish reversal.
Risks remain despite improving sentiment
Although optimism has returned, several challenges continue to limit XRP’s upside.
The token still trades nearly 70% below its July 2025 high of $3.66, reflecting months of weaker crypto liquidity, restrictive monetary policy, and continued regulatory uncertainty in the United States.
The delay of the U.S. CLARITY Act also removed one of the market’s biggest expected catalysts, while elevated Treasury yields continue reducing investor appetite for higher-risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
From a technical perspective, another rejection between $1.07 and $1.09 would strengthen the existing downtrend.
If XRP falls below $1.03, attention would quickly shift back to the psychological $1.00 support level. Losing that level could open the door for another decline toward $0.98.
Outlook
XRP has regained short-term momentum thanks to stronger network activity, Ripple’s latest institutional lending roadmap, and easing concerns surrounding its monthly token release.
However, the cryptocurrency now faces one of its most significant technical tests in weeks.
A decisive breakout above $1.07-$1.09 could trigger a wave of short liquidations and fuel a rally toward $1.15 and beyond. But if buyers fail once again at this stubborn resistance zone, sellers may quickly regain control and push XRP back toward the $1.03-$1.00 support area.
For now, all eyes remain on whether XRP can finally overcome the barrier that repeatedly capped every rally throughout June.
